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Industry Dynamics with Stochastic Demand

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Author Info
James Bergin (Queen's University)
Dan Bernhardt (University of Illinois)

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Abstract

We study the dynamics of an industry subject to aggregate demand shocks where the productivity of a firm's technology evolves stochastically over time. Each period, each firm, given the aggregate demand shock, the productivity of its technology, and the distribution of technology productivities in the economy, (i) chooses whether to remain in the industry or to exit to sell its resources to an entrant; and (ii) an active firm chooses how much capital and labor to employ, and hence output to produce. To characterize the intertemporal evolution of the distribution of firms, we discuss in particular how exit decisions, aggregate output, profits and distributions of firm productivities vary, (a) across different demand realization paths; (b) along a demand history path, detailing the effects of continued good or bad market conditions; and (c) for different anticipated future market conditions. Sufficient conditions are provide for worse demand realizations to lead to increased exit of low-productivity firms and then to improved distributions of firms at all future dates and states. Finally, it is shown that a downturn in demand can raise welfare due to the impact on exit decisions.

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File URL: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1043.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1043.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1043

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Related research
Keywords: stochastic heterogeneity; aggregate shocks; exit; thin markets; demand uncertainty;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bergin, James & Bernhardt, Dan, 1992. "Anonymous sequential games with aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 543-562. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Baldwin, John R. & Gorecki, Paul K., 1987. "Plant creation versus plant acquisition : The entry process in canadian manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 27-41, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Marcus Asplund & Volker Nocke, 2003. "Firm Turnover in Imperfectly Competitive Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990. "Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics," Papers 594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1994. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 4768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  11. Bergin, J & Bernhardt, D, 1995. "Anonymous Sequential Games: Existence and Characterization of Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 461-89, May.
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  12. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Levinsohn, J. & Petrin, A., 1999. "When Industries Become More Productive, Do Firms?: Investigating Productivity Dynamics," Working Papers 445, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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  18. Jeffrey Campbell, 1998. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 371-408, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2001. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1286-1310, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 1992. "Exit, selection, and the value of firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 621-653. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932.
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  24. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Mallika Ishwaran, 2000. "Industry Dynamics: Aggregate Uncertainty, Heterogeneity, and the Entry and Exit of Firms," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1135, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Santanu Roy & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2004. "Investment, Externalities & Industry Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 144, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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