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Investment, Externalities & Industry Dynamics

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Author Info
Santanu Roy
Takashi Kamihigashi

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Abstract

We provide an alternative theoretical explanation for a number of empirical regularities relating to the dynamics of industry structrure (product life cycle) and changes in size and age distribution of firms over time. We explain why entry may continue over a considerable period of time, why shake out of firms occur in mature industries and why exiting firms are likely to be younger and smaller in size than incumbents. Unlike the existing theoretical literature, this explanation is not based on uncertainty, structural non-stationarity or incomplete information. We consider an infinite horizon, complete information, deterministic competitive industry with continuum of firms and stationary market demand. Firms have perfect foresight, may enter or exit the industry at any point of time and active firms undertake investment which reduces their future cost of production. Investment by active firms also leads to the growth of an industry-wide capital that reduces production cost of all firms (externality). The marginal cost curves are upward sloping and firms incur a fixed cost of staying in the industry. While all entering firms earn zero intertemporal net profit, their instantaneous net profit is typically negative when they are young and strictly positive when they mature. Positive profits may persist in the long run. Equilibrium prices decline over time while the level of positive industry-wide externality increases with time.The equilibrium path makes firms indifferent between alternative entry and exit decisions. Their investment levels after entry reflects their length of stay & the nature of industry environment (prices, externalities) over their period of stay in the industry. Heterogeneity emerges out of deliberate choice. The industry stabilizes in the long run

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 144.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:144

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Related research
Keywords: Industry Dynamics; Entry; Shake out; Cost Reducing Investment; Learning; Spillovers; Competitive Industry.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Perfect Competition
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1989. "Entry, Exit, and Diffusion with Learning by Doing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 690-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 1993. "The Shakeout," Economics Working Papers 33, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Petrakis, Emmanuel & Roy, Santanu, 1999. "Cost-Reducing Investment, Competition, and Industry Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 381-401, May.
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  8. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  11. Spence, Michael, 1984. "Cost Reduction, Competition, and Industry Performance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-21, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 1992. "Exit, selection, and the value of firms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 621-653. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. repec:att:wimass:19894 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Saul Lach & Rafael Rob, 1996. "R&D, Investment, and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990. "Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics," Papers 594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  19. Dasgupta, Partha & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1980. "Industrial Structure and the Nature of Innovative Activity," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 266-93, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Geroski, P. A. & Mazzucato, M., 2001. "Modelling the dynamics of industry populations," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1003-1022, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Emmanuel Petrakis & Eric Rasmusen & Santanu Roy, 1997. "The Learning Curve in a Competitive Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(2), pages 248-268, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. James Bergin & Dan Bernhardt, 2006. "Industry Dynamics with Stochastic Demand," Working Papers 1043, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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