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Modelling the Dynamics of Industry Populations

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Author Info
Mariana Mazzucato () (Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Open University)
Paul A Geroski

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Abstract

This paper examines four models which might be used to account for variations in the number of producers who operate in a particular market over the lifetime of that market. Two of these are standard economics textbook models, one is a non-standard model and one is a textbook model derived from the literature on organizational ecology. The four models have several observable differences and this opens up the possibility of testing any one against the others. We apply these four models to 93 years of data on the population of domestic car producers in the US car industry. The salient feature of this population is the very large rise and fall in the number of firms operating in the very early years of the industry, a phenomena which seems hard to account for using any of the three textbook models that we consider here.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by The Open University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics in its series Open Discussion Papers in Economics with number 37.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2001
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1003-1022, July
Handle: RePEc:opn:wpaper:37

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
L6 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Reiss, Peter C, 1990. "Entry in Monopoly Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 531-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1994. "Competitive Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 4463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L, 1997. "Technological Extinctions of Industrial Firms: An Inquiry into Their Nature and Causes," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 379-460, March.
  7. Mariana Mazzucato & Willi Semmler, 1999. "Market share instability and stock price volatility during the industry life-cycle: the US automobile industry," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 67-96. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Richard R. Nelson, 1995. "Recent Evolutionary Theorizing about Economic Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 48-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Klepper, Steven, 1997. "Industry Life Cycles," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 145-81.
  10. Silverberg, Gerald & Dosi, Giovanni & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1988. "Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-organisation Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1032-54, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L., 2005. "Industry shakeouts and technological change," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 23-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Steven T. Berry & Joel Waldfogel, 1999. "Free Entry and Social Inefficiency in Radio Broadcasting," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 397-420, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Manjon-Antolin, M.C., 2004. "Firm size and short-term dynamics in aggregate entry and exit," Discussion Paper 2, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. James E. Prieger, 2004. "The Impacts of the Americans with Disabilities Act on the Entry and Exit of Retail Firms," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 589, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Santanu Roy & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2004. "Investment, Externalities & Industry Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 144, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fauchart, Emmanuelle & Keilbach, Max, 2002. "What drives market structure? : On the relation between firm demographic processes, firms’ innovative behaviour and market structure," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-77, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Long run relationship between entry and exit: time series evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 12(11), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guido Buenstorf, 2006. "Evolution on the Shoulders of Giants: Entrepreneurship and Firm Survival in the German Laser Industry," Papers on Econonmics and Evolution 2005-20, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group.
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