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The Market Evolution and Sales Take-Off of Product Innovations

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  • Agarwal, Rajshree

    (U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Bayus, Barry L.

    (U of North Carolina)

Abstract

In contrast to the prevailing supply-side explanation that price decreases are the key driver of a sales take-off, we argue that outward shifting supply and demand curves lead to market take-off. Our fundamental idea is that sales in new markets are initially low since the first commercialized forms of new innovations are primitive. Then, as new firms enter, actual and perceived product quality improves (and prices possibly drop) which leads to a take-off in sales. To provide empirical evidence for this explanation, we explore the relationship between take-off times, price decreases, and firm entry for a sample of consumer and industrial product innovations commercialized in the US over the past 150 years. Based on a proportional hazards analysis of take-off times, we find that new firm entry dominates other factors in explaining observed sales take-off times. We also find no evidence that price mediates the relationship between firm entry and take-off time. We interpret these results as supporting the idea that demand shifts during the early evolution of a new market due to non-price factors is the key driver of a sales take-off.

Suggested Citation

  • Agarwal, Rajshree & Bayus, Barry L., 2002. "The Market Evolution and Sales Take-Off of Product Innovations," Working Papers 02-0104, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:illbus:02-0104
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    3. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stéphane, 2014. "Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 645-653.
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    5. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2011. "When starting with the most expensive option makes sense : use and misuse of marginal abatement cost curves," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5803, The World Bank.
    6. Scott A. Shane & Karl T. Ulrich, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: Technological Innovation, Product Development, and Entrepreneurship in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 133-144, February.
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    9. John M. de Figueiredo & Brian S. Silverman, 2007. "Churn, Baby, Churn: Strategic Dynamics Among Dominant and Fringe Firms in a Segmented Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 632-650, April.
    10. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    11. Gerard J. Tellis & Stefan Stremersch & Eden Yin, 2003. "The International Takeoff of New Products: The Role of Economics, Culture, and Country Innovativeness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 188-208, October.
    12. Andrew Burke, & Holger Görg, & Aoife Hanley, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment On New Firm Survival in the UK: Evidence For Static v. Dynamic Industries," Discussion Papers 07/09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    13. Rajshree Agarwal & Barry L. Bayus, 2002. "The Market Evolution and Sales Takeoff of Product Innovations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1024-1041, August.
    14. Christopher Akpotu, Ph.D. & Tamunosiki-Amadi Jasmine, Ph.D., 2016. "Strategic Alliance and Operational Sustainability in the Nigerian Banking Sector," Review of Social Sciences, LAR Center Press, vol. 1(8), pages 44-50, August.
    15. John Dokotri & Dung Ezekiel Jidong & Victor Dung Pam, 2016. "Merger, Acquisition and Employees’ Work Attitude after Bank Reform in Nigeria," Review of Social Sciences, LAR Center Press, vol. 1(9), pages 1-12, September.
    16. Landon Kleis & Paul Chwelos & Ronald V. Ramirez & Iain Cockburn, 2012. "Information Technology and Intangible Output: The Impact of IT Investment on Innovation Productivity," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 42-59, March.
    17. Scanlon, Paul, 2019. "New goods and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 140-157.
    18. Katja Maria Hydle & Kjersti Vikse Meland, 2016. "Spinning Them Off: Entrepreneuring Practices in Corporate Spin-Offs," Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Innovation, Fundacja Upowszechniająca Wiedzę i Naukę "Cognitione", vol. 12(1), pages 57-73.
    19. Huang, Xiao & Sosic, Greys, 2010. "Analysis of industry equilibria in models with sustaining and disruptive technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 238-248, November.
    20. Moore, Michal C. & Arent, Douglas J. & Norland, Douglas, 2007. "R&D advancement, technology diffusion, and impact on evaluation of public R&D," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1464-1473, March.
    21. Andrew Burke & Holger Görg & Aoife Hanley, 2008. "The impact of foreign direct investment on new firm survival in the UK: evidence for static versus dynamic industries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 395-407, December.

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