Analyzing Duration Times in Marketing: Evidence for the Effectiveness of Hazard Rate Models
AbstractSome statistical methods developed recently in the biometrics and econometrics literature show great promise for improving the analysis of duration times in marketing. They incorporate the right censoring that is prevalent in duration times data, and can be used to make a wide variety of useful predictions. Both of these features make these methods preferable to the regression, logit, and discriminant analyses that marketers have typically used in analyzing durations. This paper is intended to fulfill three objectives. First, we demonstrate how decision situations that involve durations differ from other marketing phenomena. Second, we show how standard modeling approaches to handle duration times can break down because of the peculiarities inherent in durations. It has been suggested in recent marketing articles that an alternative to these conventional procedures, i.e., hazard rate models and proportional hazard regression, can more effectively handle duration type data. Third, to investigate whether these proposed benefits are in fact delivered for marketing durations data, we estimate and validate both conventional and hazard rate models for household interpurchase times of saltine crackers. Our findings indicate the superiority of proportional hazard regression methods vis-à-vis common procedures in terms of stability and face validity of the estimates and in predictive accuracy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.
Volume (Year): 12 (1993)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
econometric modeling; estimation and other statistical techniques; pricing research; promotion; regression and other statistical techniques;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Cleeren, Kathleen & Dekimpe, Marnik & Helsen, Kristiaan, 2008.
"Weathering product-harm crises,"
Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
urn:hdl:123456789/205823, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Cleeren, K. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Helsen, K., 2008. "Weathering product-harm crises," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-321393, Tilburg University.
- Cleeren, Kathleen & Dekimpe, Marnik & Helsen, K, 2006. "Weathering product-harm crises," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/121040, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Vardit Landsman & Moshe Givon, 2010. "The diffusion of a new service: Combining service consideration and brand choice," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 91-121, March.
- Uwe Cantner & Kristina Dreßler & Jens J. Krüger, 2006.
"Firm survival in the German automobile industry,"
Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 49-60, March.
- Jeongwen Chiang & Ching-Fan Chung & Emily Cremers, 2001. "Promotions and the pattern of grocery shopping time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 801-819.
- Van de Gucht, Linda M. & Moore, William T., 1998. "Predicting the duration and reversal probability of leveraged buyouts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 299-315, October.
- Islam, Towhidul & Meade, Nigel, 2000. "Modelling diffusion and replacement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 551-570, September.
- Kim, Namwoon & Srivastava, Rajendra K. & Han, Jin K., 2001. "Consumer decision-making in a multi-generational choice set context," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 123-136, September.
- Rust, Roland T. & Metters, Richard, 1996. "Mathematical models of service," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 427-439, June.
- Bas Donkers & Peter Verhoef & Martijn Jong, 2007. "Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 163-190, June.
- Brian W. Gould, 1996. "Consumer Promotion and Purchase Timing: The Case of Cheese," Wisconsin-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics Staff Papers 396, Wisconsin-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics Department.
- Mercedes Esteban-Bravo & José Múgica & Jose Vidal-Sanz, 2005.
"Optimal Duration of Magazine Promotions,"
Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-114, April.
- Esteban Bravo, Mercedes & Múgica, José M. & Vidal-Sanz, Jose M., 2005. "Optimal duration of magazine promotions," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/7325, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Mercedes Esteban-Bravo & Jose M. Mugica & Jose M. Vidal-Sanz, 2004. "Optimal Duration Of Magazine Promotions," Business Economics Working Papers wb045417, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
- Ching, Andrew & Erdem, Tulin & Keane, Michael, 2007. "The Price Consideration Model of Brand Choice," MPRA Paper 4686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Brian GOULD, 1996. "Consumer Promotion And Purchase Timing: The Case Of Cheese," Staff Papers 396, University of Wisconsin Madison, AAE.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.