Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Models of technology diffusion

Contents:

Author Info

  • Geroski, P. A.

Abstract

The literature on new technology diffusion is vast, and it spills over many conventional disciplinary boundaries. This paper surveys this literature by focussing on alternative explanations of the dominant stylized fact in this are: namely, that the usage of new technologies over time typically follows an S-curve. The most commonly found model which is used to account for this model is the so-called epidemic model, which builds on the premise that what limits the speed of usage is the lack of information available about the new technology, how to use it and what it does. The leading alternate model is often called the probit model, which follows from the premise that different firms, with different goals and abilities, are likely to want to adopt the new technology at different times. In this model, diffusion occurs as firms of different types gradually adopt it. There are actually many ways to generate an S-curve, and the third class of models which we examine are models of density dependence popularized by population ecologists. In these models, the twin forces of legitimation and competition help to establish new technologies and then ultimately limit their take-up. Finally, we looks at models in which the initial choice between different variants of the new technology affect the subsequent diffusion speed of the chosen technology. Such models often rely on information cascades, which drive herd like adoption behaviour when a particular variant is finally selected.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V77-40379X9-B/2/35fa1575ff09a3717f925cec19b463dd
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research Policy.

Volume (Year): 29 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4-5 (April)
Pages: 603-625

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:29:y:2000:i:4-5:p:603-625

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/respol

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jensen, Richard, 1983. "Innovation adoption and diffusion when there are competing innovations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 161-171, February.
  2. Macdonald, G.M., 1988. "Competitive Diffusion," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-10, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  3. Stoneman, Paul L & David, Paul A, 1986. "Adoption Subsidies vs Information Provision as Instruments of Technology Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(380a), pages 142-50, Supplemen.
  4. Massoud Karshenas & Paul L. Stoneman, 1993. "Rank, Stock, Order, and Epidemic Effects in the Diffusion of New Process Technologies: An Empirical Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(4), pages 503-528, Winter.
  5. Geroski,Paul A. & Gregg,Paul, 1997. "Coping with Recession," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521622769.
  6. Jensen, Richard, 1982. "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 182-193, June.
  7. Stoneman, Paul & Kwon, Myung-Joong, 1994. "The Diffusion of Multiple Process Technologies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 420-31, March.
  8. Midgley, David F. & Morrison, Pamela D. & Roberts, John H., 1992. "The effect of network structure in industrial diffusion processes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 533-552, December.
  9. Schmalensee, Richard., 1980. "Product differentiation advantages of pioneering brands," Working papers 1140-80., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  10. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
  11. Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson & Adam Jaffe, 1997. "University Versus Corporate Patents: A Window On The Basicness Of Invention," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 19-50.
  12. Reinganum, Jennifer F., . "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Working Papers 312, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  13. Balcer, Yves & Lippman, Steven A., 1984. "Technological expectations and adoption of improved technology," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 292-318, December.
  14. Metcalfe, J S, 1970. "Diffusion of Innovation in the Lancashire Textile Industry," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 38(2), pages 145-62, June.
  15. Jay Pil Choi, 1997. "Herd Behavior, the 'Penguin Effect,' and the Suppression of Informational Diffusion: An Analysis of Informational Externalities and Payoff Interdependency," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(3), pages 407-425, Autumn.
  16. Postrel, Steven R, 1990. "Competing Networks and Proprietary Standards: The Case of Quadraphonic Sound," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 169-85, December.
  17. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1976. "On Technological Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 523-35, September.
  18. Reinganum, Jennifer F., . "Market Structure and the Diffusion of New Technology," Working Papers 360, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  19. Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 2001. "The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 577-588, March.
  20. Link, Albert N. & Kapur, Puneet, 1994. "A note on the diffusion of flexible manufacturing systems technology," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 357-362, December.
  21. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
  22. Dixon, Robert J, 1980. "Hybrid Corn Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1451-61, September.
  23. Vettas, Nikolaos, 1998. "Investment Dynamics in Markets with Endogenous Demand," CEPR Discussion Papers 1994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Harley, C. K., 1973. "On the Persistence of Old Techniques: The Case of North American Wooden Shipbuilding," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 372-398, June.
  25. Silverberg, Gerald & Dosi, Giovanni & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1988. "Innovation, Diversity and Diffusion: A Self-organisation Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1032-54, December.
  26. Kapur, Sandeep, 1995. "Technological Diffusion with Social Learning," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 173-95, June.
  27. Cabral, Luis M. B., 1990. "On the adoption of innovations with 'network' externalities," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 299-308, June.
  28. Rui Baptista, 1999. "The Diffusion of Process Innovations: A Selective Review," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 107-129.
  29. David, Paul A. & Olsen, Trond E., 1992. "Technology adoption, learning spillovers, and the optimal duration of patent-based monopolies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 517-543, December.
  30. Nikolaos Vettas, 1998. "Demand and Supply in New Markets: Diffusion with Bilateral Learning," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(1), pages 215-233, Spring.
  31. Sharon M. Oster & John M. Quigley, 1977. "Regulatory Barriers to the Diffusion of Innovation: Some Evidence from Building Codes," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 361-377, Autumn.
  32. De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November.
  33. Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1993. "Competitive Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 4463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Davies, Stephen W., 1979. "Inter-firm diffusion of process innovations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-317, October.
  35. Gregory D. Wozniak, 1987. "Human Capital, Information, and the Early Adoption of New Technology," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(1), pages 101-112.
  36. Romeo, Anthony A, 1977. "The Rate of Imitation of a Capital-Embodied Process Innovation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(173), pages 63-69, February.
  37. Levin, Sharon G & Levin, Stanford L & Meisel, John B, 1987. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Adoption of a New Technology: The Case of Optical Scanners," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 12-17, February.
  38. Stoneman, Paul & Vickers, John, 1988. "The Assessment: The Economics of Technology Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages i-xvi, Winter.
  39. Pennings, J.M. & Harianto, F., 1992. "The diffusion of technological innovation in the commercial banking industry," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-382782, Tilburg University.
  40. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-40, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:29:y:2000:i:4-5:p:603-625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.