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Interpreting the Procyclical Productivity of Manufacturing Sectors: External Effects or Labor Hoarding?

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Author Info
Sbordone, Argia M

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Abstract

This paper investigates whether procyclical productivity is due to cyclical variations in the rate of utilization of labor or to technological externalities. By looking at the relation between sectoral productivity and the level of aggregate activity, empirical evidence is presented to distinguish the two hypotheses. Analysis of two-digit U.S. manufacturing industries shows that sectoral productivity is more closely related to the rate of change of aggregate activity than to its level. This result is consistent with the interpretation that cyclical productivity is due to cyclical variations in the rate of utilization of labor, which responds to expected future industry conditions. Aggregate variables in production-function regressions have therefore the role of forecasting variables for future industry conditions. Copyright 1997 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 29 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 26-45
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:29:y:1997:i:1:p:26-45

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Ciaran Driver & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2005. "Identifying Externalities in UK Manufacturing Using Direct Estimation of an Average Cost Function," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 1005, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Luigi Guiso & Fabiano Schivardi, 2000. "Information Spillovers and Factor Adjustment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 368, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 1998. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," International Finance Discussion Papers 625, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Miguel Jimenez & Domenico J. Marchetti, 2000. "Interpreting the Procyclical Productivity of Manufacturing Sectors: Can We Really Rule Out External Effects:," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1319, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2000. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 7940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Yi Wen, 2004. "What Does It Take to Explain Procyclical Productivity?," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1180-1180. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Wen, Yi, 2002. "What Does It Take to Explain Procyclical Productivity," Working Papers 02-14, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Francesco Busato & Enrico Marchetti, 2006. "Skills, sunspots and cycles," Economics Working Papers 2006-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  10. J. Christina Wang, 2003. "Productivity and economies of scale in the production of bank service value added," Working Papers 03-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  11. Inklaar, Robert, 2006. "Cyclical Productivity in Europe and the United States, Evaluating the Evidence on Returns to Scale and Input Utilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 5501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Charlotta Groth & Soledad Nuñez & Sylaja Srinivasan, . "Productivity growth, adjustment costs and variable factor utilisation: the UK case," Bank of England working papers 295, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  13. Domenico J. Marchetti & Francesco Nucci, 2001. "Labor effort over the business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 424, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Enrico Marchetti, . "Indeterminacy, Underground Activities and Tax Evasion," Working Papers 289, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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