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Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?

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  • Abraham, Katharine G
  • Katz, Lawrence F

Abstract

Recent work by David Lilien has argued that the positive correlation between the dispersion of employment growth rates across sectors (a) and the unemployment rate implies that sectoral shifts in labor demand are responsible for a substantial fraction of cyclical variation in unemployment. This paper demonstrates that, under empirically satisfied conditions, traditional single-factor business-cycle models will produce a positive correlation between (sigma) and the unemployment rate. Information on the job vacancy rate permits one to distinguish between a pure sectoral shift and a pure aggregate demand interpretation of this positive correlation. The finding that a and the volume of help wanted advertising (a job vacancy proxy) are negatively related supports an aggregate demand interpretation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 94 (1986)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 507-22

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:94:y:1986:i:3:p:507-22

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  1. Charles Holt & Martin David, 1966. "The Concept of Job Vacancies in a Dynamic Theory of the Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement and Interpretation of Job Vacancies, pages 73-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Rosen, Sherwin, 1983. "Unemployment and insurance," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 5-49, January.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  5. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
  6. Barro, Robert J, 1984. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomics in 1984," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 179-82, May.
  7. Jackman, R & Layard, Richard & Pissarides, C, 1989. "On Vacancies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 377-94, November.
  8. Abraham, Katharine G, 1983. "Structural-Frictional vs. Deficient Demand Unemployment: Some New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 708-24, September.
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  1. Using Beveridge curve dynamics to identify cyclical and structural shocks
    by David Andolfatto in MacroMania on 2012-01-24 16:45:00
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