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Modelling of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff from the Perspective of the History of Econometrics

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  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

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Abstract

This paper examines the history of econometrics through a particular case study - modelling the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. It focuses on the questions of what econometric tools modellers would choose to model the tradeoff, how their choices helped shape the ways that they obtained, interpreted and theorised the empirical evidence and how their different concerns and the different problems that they encountered has fed back into the development of econometrics. The study reveals that much of the interaction between econometrics and economics involved modellers taking certain tradeoffs between theory and data, and their different positions generated disputes, factions as well as confusions. It also reveals that the history of modelling the tradeoff mirrors the evolving process of how the Cowles structural modelling paradigm in econometrics became consolidated, challenged, reformed or abandoned.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 661.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp661

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Keywords: Phillips curve; History of econometrics;

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  1. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
  2. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
  3. Altonji, Joseph & Ashenfelter, Orley, 1980. "Wage Movements and the Labour Market Equilibrium Hypothesis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 217-45, August.
  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  8. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Tsurumi, Hiroki, 1985. "Testing the Lucas Hypothesis on Output-Inflation Trade-offs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(1), pages 43-53, January.
  9. Oswald, Andrew J, 1985. " The Economic Theory of Trade Unions: An Introductory Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 160-93.
  10. Sargan, J D, 1980. "A Model of Wage-Price Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 97-112, January.
  11. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-37, April.
  12. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
  13. Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Economics Working Paper Archive 475, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Price Expectations and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 342-50, June.
  15. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  16. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  17. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-80, August.
  18. Thomas J. Sargent, 1975. "The observational equivalence of natural and unnatural rate theories of macroeconomics," Working Papers 48, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Pencavel, John, 1985. " Wages and Employment under Trade Unionism: Microeconomic Models and Macroeconomic Applications," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 197-225.
  20. Desai, Meghnad J, 1975. "The Phillips Curve: A Revisionist Interpretation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(165), pages 1-19, February.
  21. Geweke, John F. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 1981. "Latent variable models for time series : A frequency domain approach with an application to the permanent income hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 287-304, December.
  22. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  23. Pagan, Adrian, 1987. " Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
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