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Measures of Technology and the Short-Run Responses to Technology Shocks - Is the RBC-Model Consistent with Swedish Manufacturing Data?

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Author Info

  • Carlsson, Mikael

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper estimates technology growth using several variants of the Hall (1988, 1990) method on data for Swedish two-digit manufacturing industries. More specifically, I first apply and evaluate two different approaches to control for varying factor utilization developed by Basu et al. (1998) and Burnside et al. (1995). Second, I propose a generalization of the latter specification. Finally, the cyclical behavior of the resulting technology measure is studied and the responses of hours and output to a technology shock are estimated using a variant of the standard VAR-approach. The main finding is that a positive technology shock has, on impact, a contractionary effect on hours and non-expansionary effect on output. This finding is inconsistent with the predictions of the standard real business cycle model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2000:20.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 05 Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2003, pages 555-579.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2000_020

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
Email:
Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Related research

Keywords: technological change; cyclical factor utilization; business fluctuations; panel data; manufacturing;

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References

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  1. Dufwenberg, Martin & Koskenkyla, Heikki & Sodersten, Jan, 1994. " Manufacturing Investment and Taxation in the Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 443-61.
  2. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  4. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June.
  5. Jordi Gali, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Anxo, Dominique & Sterner, Thomas, 1994. "Using electricity data to measure capital utilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 63-74, January.
  7. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 245-73, April.
  8. Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1988. "The Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator and Its t-RatioWhen the Instrument is a Poor One," NBER Technical Working Papers 0069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ohlsson, Henry & Vredin, Anders, 1994. "Political Cycles and Cyclical Policies. A New Test Approach Using Fiscal Forecasts," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 9, Stockholm School of Economics.
  10. Hall, Alastair R & Rudebusch, Glenn D & Wilcox, David W, 1996. "Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 283-98, May.
  11. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  12. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  13. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," NBER Working Papers 5125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Wilson, Daniel J., 2000. "Estimating Returns to Scale: Lo, Still No Balance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 285-314, April.
  15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  16. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1995. "Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?," NBER Working Papers 5073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Basu, Susanto, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-51, August.
  18. Shea, J., 1990. "Accident Rates, Labor Effort And The Business Cycle," Working papers 90-28, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  19. John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 1999. "Why is productivity procyclical? Why do we care?," International Finance Discussion Papers 638, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
  21. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  23. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  24. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  25. Costello, Donna M, 1993. "A Cross-Country, Cross-Industry Comparison of Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 207-22, April.
  26. Burnside, Craig, 1996. "Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 177-201, April.
  27. Susanto Basu & Miles S. Kimball, 1997. "Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation," NBER Working Papers 5915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  29. Miles S. Kimball & Michael Woodford, 1994. "The quantitative analysis of the basic neomonetarist model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1241-1289.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alexius, Annika & Carlsson, Mikael, 2001. "Measures of Technology and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Sweden and the U.S," Working Paper Series 174, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Alexius, Annika & Carlsson, Mikael, 2002. "Measures of Technology and the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 2002:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, revised 02 Mar 2006.
  3. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00193600 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Chahnez Boudaya, 2006. "Stage-specific technology shocks and employment : Could we reconcile with the RBC models ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00115791, HAL.
  6. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00115791 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Chahnez Boudaya, 2005. "The effects of technological innovations on employment : a new explanation," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v05013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).

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