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Productivity, aggregate demand and unemployment fluctuations

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  • Regis Barnichon

Abstract

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the cyclical behavior of US unemployment that poses a challenge to standard search and matching models. The correlation between cyclical unemployment and the cyclical component of labor productivity switched sign in the mid 80s: from negative it became positive, while standard search models imply a negative correlation. I argue that the inconsistency arises because search models do not allow output to be demand determined in the short run, and I present a search model with nominal rigidities that can rationalize the empirical findings. In addition, I show that the interaction of hiring frictions and nominal frictions can generate a new propagation mechanism absent in standard New-Keynesian models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2008-47.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-47

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Keywords: Unemployment ; Labor productivity;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "The Shimer Puzzle and the Correct Identification of Productivity Shocks," CEP Discussion Papers dp0823, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Monetary Persistence and the Labor Market: A New Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3513, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Regis Barnichon, 2009. "The Shimer puzzle and the identification of productivity shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics and Labor Market Dynamics Revisited," Kiel Working Papers 1368, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Javier Andrés & José Emilio Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2011. "Household Debt and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Papers 1102, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  6. Julien Champagne & André Kurmann, 2010. "The Great Increase in Relative Volatility of Real Wages in the United States," Cahiers de recherche 1010, CIRPEE.
  7. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2006. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers 1041, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2007.
  8. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, 2011. "Performance pay and shifts in macroeconomic correlations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 800, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Regis Barnichon, 2009. "Demand-driven job separation: reconciling search models with the ins and outs of unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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