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Productivity, aggregate demand and unemployment fluctuations

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Author Info
Regis Barnichon

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Abstract

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the cyclical behavior of US unemployment that poses a challenge to standard search and matching models. The correlation between cyclical unemployment and the cyclical component of labor productivity switched sign in the mid 80s: from negative it became positive, while standard search models imply a negative correlation. I argue that the inconsistency arises because search models do not allow output to be demand determined in the short run, and I present a search model with nominal rigidities that can rationalize the empirical findings. In addition, I show that the interaction of hiring frictions and nominal frictions can generate a new propagation mechanism absent in standard New-Keynesian models.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2008-47.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-47

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Keywords: Unemployment ; Labor productivity;

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  21. Antonella Trigari, 2004. "Labour Market Search, Wage Bargaining and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 268, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  31. Bils, Mark & Cho, Jang-Ok, 1994. "Cyclical factor utilization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 319-354, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  39. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "The Shimer Puzzle and the Correct Identification of Productivity Shocks," CEP Discussion Papers dp0823, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2006. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers 1041, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics and Labor Market Dynamics Revisited," Kiel Working Papers 1368, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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