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On the Sources of the Great Moderation

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Author Info
Jordi Galí
Luca Gambetti
Abstract

The Great Moderation in the US economy has been accompanied by large changes in the comovements among output, hours, and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. Among other changes, our findings point to an increase in the volatility of hours relative to output, a shrinking contribution of nontechnology shocks to output volatility, and a change in the cyclical response of labor productivity to those shocks. That evidence suggests a more complex picture than that associated with "good luck" explanations of the Great Moderation. (JEL: E23, E24, J22, J24)

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 26-57
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:26-57

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  1. Holly, Sean & Petrella, Ivan, 2009. "Factor Demand Linkages, Technology Shocks and the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 18120, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonathan Pincus & Richard Pomfret, 2009. "The Financial Sector And The Future Of Capitalism," Working Papers 2009-05, University of Adelaide, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-22.

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