Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Grydaki, Maria
  • Bezemer, Dirk

Abstract

During the Great Moderation, financial innovation in the US increased the size and scope of credit flows supporting the growth of wealth. We hypothesize that spending out of wealth came to finance a wider range of GDP components such that it smoothed GDP. Both these trends combined would be consistent with a decrease in the volatility of output. We suggest testable implications in terms of both growth of credit and output and volatility of growth. In a multivariate GARCH framework, we test this view for home mortgages and residential investment. We observe unidirectional causality in variance from total output, residential investment and non-residential output to mortgage lending before, but not during the Great Moderation. These findings are consistent with a role for credit dynamics in explaining the Great Moderation.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613000721
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 4615-4626

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4615-4626

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Great Moderation; Mortgage credit; Multivariate GARCH; Causality;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  3. Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the U.S. External Imbalance," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 209-225, December.
  4. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca & Pappa, Evi, 2006. "The Structural Dynamics of US Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5879, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, . "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-26, June.
  7. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Financial innovations and macroeconomic volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  9. Mendicino, Caterina, 2007. "Credit market and macroeconomic volatility," Working Paper Series 0743, European Central Bank.
  10. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Howells, Peter, 2001. "Money, Credit and Spending: Drawing Causal Inferences," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(5), pages 547-57, November.
  12. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 11330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Guangzhong Li & James Refalo & Lifan Wu, 2008. "Causality-in-variance and causality-in-mean among European government bond markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(21), pages 1709-1720.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 7209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2002. "Testing for Causality-in-Variance: An Application to the East Asian Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 235-45, July.
  16. Q. Farooq Akram & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilise inflation and output?," Working Paper 2006/07, Norges Bank.
  17. Angelos Kanas, 2002. "Mean and Variance Causality between Official and Parallel Currency Markets: Evidence from Four Latin American Countries," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 137-163, 05.
  18. JONATHAN McCARTHY & EGON ZAKRAJSEK, 2007. "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 591-613, 03.
  19. Sushil Wadhwani, 2008. "Should Monetary Policy Respond To Asset Price Bubbles? Revisiting the Debate," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 206(1), pages 25-34, October.
  20. Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  21. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. van Dijk, Dick & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2005. "Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 193-199, November.
  23. Bezemer, Dirk J., 2010. "Understanding financial crisis through accounting models," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 676-688, October.
  24. Wouter J. Den Haan & Vincent Sterk, 2011. "The Myth of Financial Innovation and the Great Moderation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(553), pages 707-739, 06.
  25. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2008. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 120-144, spring.
  26. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  27. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
  28. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "Stock market volatility and the Great Moderation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Christian M. HAFNER & Helmut HERWARTZ, 2008. "Testing for Causality in Variance Usinf Multivariate GARCH Models," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 89, pages 215-241.
  30. Wen-Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and The Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
  31. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0735, Banco de Espa�a.
  32. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
  33. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  34. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2012. "Did the Recent Housing Boom Signal the Global Financial Crisis?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 999-1018, January.
  35. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  36. Ben S. Bernanke, 1993. "Credit in the macroeconomy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 50-70.
  37. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  38. V. Alaganar & Ramaprasad Bhar, 2003. "An international study of causality-in-variance: Interest rate and financial sector returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 39-55, March.
  39. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  41. Carroll, Christopher D. & Otsuka, Misuzu & Slacalek, Jirka, 2006. "How large is the housing wealth effect? A new approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/35, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  42. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
  43. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-51, August.
  44. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  46. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  47. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
  48. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
  49. Pantelidis, Theologos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2004. "Testing for Granger causality in variance in the presence of causality in mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 201-207, November.
  50. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Money demand heterogeneity and the great moderation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 255-266, March.
  51. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "What moves GNP?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 636, Econometric Society.
  52. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
  53. Laurent, Sebastien & Peters, Jean-Philippe, 2002. " G@RCH 2.2: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 447-85, July.
  54. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  55. Dirk J. Bezemer, 2011. "The Credit Crisis and Recession as a Paradigm Test," Journal of Economic Issues, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 1-18, March.
  56. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  57. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  58. Sushil Wadhwani, 2008. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Bubbles? Revisiting the Debate," FMG Special Papers sp180, Financial Markets Group.
  59. Benati, Luca & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "VAR analysis and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series 0866, European Central Bank.
  60. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  61. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Canning, D. & Amaral, L. A. N. & Lee, Y. & Meyer, M. & Stanley, H. E., 1998. "Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 335-341, September.
  63. Borja Larrain, 2006. "Do Banks Affect the Level and Composition of Industrial Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1897-1925, 08.
  64. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
  65. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
  66. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
  67. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
  68. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  69. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4615-4626. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.