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Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth

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Author Info
Stephen G. Cecchetti
Alfonso Flores-Lagunes
Stefan Krause

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Abstract

In much of the world, growth is more stable than it once was. Looking at a sample of twentyfive countries, we find that in sixteen, real GDP growth is less volatile today than it was twenty years ago. And these declines are large, averaging more than fifty per cent. What accounts for the fact that real growth has been more stable in recent years? We survey the evidence and competing explanations and find support for the view that improved inventory management policies, coupled with financial innovation, adopting an inflation targeting scheme and increased central bank independence have all been associated with more stable real growth. Furthermore, we find weak evidence suggesting that increased commercial openness has coincided with increased output volatility.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11946.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11946

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  6. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk, 2004. "The Volatility Of The Output Gap In The G7," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 136, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2005. "Institutions, Arrangements, and Preferences for Inflation Stability: Evidence and Lessons from a Panel Data Analysis," Emory Economics 0501, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Working Papers 12542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Olaf Posch, 2009. "Explaining Output Volatility: The Case of Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working papers 2008-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited," Working Papers 0904, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," NBER Working Papers 14887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ana Carolina Saizar & Nigel Andrew Chalk, 2008. "Is Monetary Policy Effective When Credit is Low?," IMF Working Papers 08/288, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Financial innovations and macroeconomic volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  9. Phil Bodman, . "Output Volatility in Australia," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0106, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," ECARES Working Papers 2008_008, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  11. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Trade Openness and Volatility," Development Working Papers 219, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Louis J. Maccini & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4," NCER Working Paper Series 4, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Galí, Jordi & Gambetti, Luca, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 968, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  17. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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