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Has the business cycle changed?

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Author Info
James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 9-56
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkpr:y:2003:p:9-56

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Monetary policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Financial Openness and Business Cycle Volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1121, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
  3. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Richard Blundell & Ian Preston, 1998. "Consumption Inequality And Income Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 603-640, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2003. "Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility: Facts," Macroeconomics 0306008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    Other versions:
  16. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Ben Bernanke & Frederic Mishkin, 1992. "Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy: Observations from Six Industrialized Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 183-238 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "Productivity Growth and the New Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2002-2), pages 211-265. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 71-96. [Downloadable!]
  24. Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2003. "Expectation Traps and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 715-741, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "The effect of monetary policy on residential and structures investment under differential project planning and completion times," International Finance Discussion Papers 671, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  26. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202. [Downloadable!]
  29. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
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  31. Robert A. Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2002. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Earnings in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C68-C73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78. [Downloadable!]
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  34. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  35. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  36. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  37. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  38. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  39. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March. [Downloadable!]
  40. Sensier, M. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Report EI 2001-11 Revision_Date:, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  41. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  43. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 135-174. [Downloadable!]
  44. repec:rus:hseeco:123092 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Has monetary policy become less powerful?," Staff Reports 144, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  46. Carvalho, Vasco M & Harvey, Andrew, 2004. "Convergence and Cycles in the Euro Zone," CEPR Discussion Papers 4726, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  47. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  48. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  49. Rob Luginbuhl & Siem Jan Koopman, 2003. "Convergence in European GDP Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-031/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  50. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2002. "An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 427-437. [Downloadable!]
  51. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 315, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  52. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  53. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  54. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2004. "Consumption inequality and partial insurance," IFS Working Papers W04/28, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  55. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  56. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158. [Downloadable!]
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