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Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility: Facts

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Author Info
Comin, D.
Mulani, S.

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Abstract

In this paper, we document the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm level. We establish that the upward trend in micro volatility is not simply driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied. We argue that this new fact renders obsolete the proposed explanations for the decline in aggregate volatility and that, given the symmetry of the diverging trends at the micro and macro level, a common explanation is highly likely. We conclude by describing one such theory driven by market integration.

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Paper provided by C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University in its series Working Papers with number 03-08.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cvs:starer:03-08

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Postal: C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 19 W. 4th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10012
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Related research
Keywords: AGGREGATE VOLATILITY; FIRM-LEVEL VOLATILITY; COMPUSTAT; MARKET INTEGRATION.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 374-383, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1994. "The Growth of Earnings Instability in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-2), pages 217-272. [Downloadable!]
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Comin, D., 2000. "An Uncertainty-Driven Theory of the Productivity Slowdown: Manufacturing," Working Papers 00-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jordi Gali & J. David Lopez-Salido & Javier Valles, 2002. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance," NBER Working Papers 8768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 135-174. [Downloadable!]
  11. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Miles Parker, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm-Level Volatility in the UK," Discussion Papers 16, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2005. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources, Micro-Macro Links and the Recent Downturn," IZA Discussion Papers 1639, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Diego Comin & Erica L. Groshen & Bess Rubin, 2006. "Turbulent firms, turbulent wages?," Staff Reports 238, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Raphael Bergoeing & Andrés Hernando & Andrea Repetto, 2006. "Market Reforms and Efficiency Gains in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 372, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in G7 countries," Working Papers 2004-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Raphael Bergoeing & Andrea Repetto, 2006. "Micro Efficiency and Aggregate Growth in Chile," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 169-192. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2004. "Patterns of Comovement: The Role of Information Technology in the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 10937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Xavier Gabaix, 2004. "Power laws and the origins of aggregate fluctuations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 484, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56. [Downloadable!]
  12. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher Kent & Crystal Ossolinski & Luke Willard, 2007. "The Rise of Household Indebtedness," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.), The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Volatility accounting: a production perspective on increased economic stability," Staff Reports 245, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  15. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  16. Euwals, Rob & Hogerbrugge, Maurice, 2006. "Explaining the Growth of Part-Time Employment: Factors of Supply and Demand," CEPR Discussion Papers 5595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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