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Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations

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  • Régis Barnichon

Abstract

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the cyclical behavior of US unemployment that poses a challenge to standard search and matching models. The correlation between cyclical unemployment and the cyclical component of labor productivity switched sign at the beginning of the Great Moderation in the mid 80s: from negative it became positive, while standard search models imply a negative correlation. I argue that the inconsistency arises because search models do not allow output to be demand determined in the short run. I present a search model with nominal rigidities that can rationalize the empirical findings, and I document two new facts about the Great Moderation that can account for the large and swift increase in the unemployment-productivity correlation in the mid-80s.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0819.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0819

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Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

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Keywords: Unemployment Fluctuations; Labor productivity; Search and matching model; New-Keynesian model;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Julien Champagne & André Kurmann, 2010. "The Great Increase in Relative Volatility of Real Wages in the United States," Cahiers de recherche 1010, CIRPEE.
  2. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl & Dennis Snower, 2008. "Monetary Persistence and the Labor Market: A New Perspective," Kiel Working Papers 1409, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2011. "Household debt and labour market fluctuations," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1129, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics and Labor Market Dynamics Revisited," Kiel Working Papers 1368, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  6. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, 2011. "Performance pay and shifts in macroeconomic correlations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 800, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Regis Barnichon, 2009. "Demand-driven job separation: reconciling search models with the ins and outs of unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "The Shimer Puzzle and the Correct Identification of Productivity Shocks," CEP Discussion Papers dp0823, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  9. Regis Barnichon, 2009. "The Shimer puzzle and the identification of productivity shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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