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Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks

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Author Info
John Fernald

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Abstract

Recent empirical work using structural VARs with long-run restrictions assesses whether hours worked per capita rises or falls following a technology improvement. This literature reaches divergent conclusions on the sign of this effect, depending on whether hours worked enters the VAR in log-levels or growth rates. In contrast, I find that once one allows for (statistically and economically plausible) trend breaks in labor productivity, it is unimportant whether hours enters the VAR in levels or growth rates: Hours worked falls by a statistically significant amount on impact following a technology improvement. These findings apply in both bivariate and larger VAR systems. Results are also robust to reasonable variation in dating the trend breaks. In the full sample, however, one must take out two breaks to get the contractionary effects of technology improvements, at least if hours enters in levels. Finally, but importantly, I discuss conjectures on what, statistically and economically, drives the sensitivity to trend breaks. I argue that the sensitivity is economically interesting and informative

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2004 Meeting Papers with number 477.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed004:477

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Related research
Keywords: Technology shocks; business cycles; structural change;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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  1. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2004. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 10592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Fabio Canova & David Lopez-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2006. "Schumpeterian Technology Shocks," Economics Working Papers 1012, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2008. "Do nominal rigidities matter for the transmission of technology shocks?," Working Paper Series 2008-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fève, Patrick & Guay, Alain, 2006. "Identification of Technology Shocks in Structural VARs," IDEI Working Papers 383, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Galí, Jordi, 2005. "Trends in Hours, Balanced Growth and the Role of Technology in the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4915, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, . "Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective," Faculty Working Papers 03/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabio Canova & David López-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2007. "The labor market effects of technology shocks," Banco de España Working Papers 0719, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush, 2007. "A flexible finite-horizon identification of technology shocks," Working Papers 2005-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2005. "Measures of Per Capita Hours and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," NBER Working Papers 11694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Marchetti, Domenico J. & Nucci, Francesco, 2006. "Pricing Behaviour and the Response of Hours to Productivity Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 5504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Holly, S. & Petrella, I., 2008. "Factor demand linkages and the business cycle: Interpreting aggregate fluctuations as sectoral fluctuations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0827, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Ghent, Andra, 2006. "Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?," MPRA Paper 180, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations: Evidence for Italy," IMF Working Papers 05/228, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0819, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2004. "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 10631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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