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Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States

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Author Info
Morten O. Ravn (EUI and CEPR)
Saverio Simonelli () (Università di Napoli Federico II, EUI and CSEF)

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Abstract

We use a 12-dimensional VAR to examine the dynamic e®ects on the labor market of four structural technology and policy shocks. For each shock, we examine the dynamic effects on the labor market, the importance of the shock for labor market volatility, and the comovement between labor market variables and other key aggregate variables in response to the shock. We document that labor market indicators display ”hump-shaped” responses to the identified shocks. Technology shocks and monetary policy shocks are important for labor market volatility but the ranking of their importance is sensitive to the VAR specification. The conditional correlations at business cycle frequencies are similar in response to the four shocks apart from the correlations between hours worked, labor productivity and real wages. To account for the unconditional correlations between these variables, a mixture of shocks are required.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Salerno, Italy in its series CSEF Working Papers with number 182.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:182

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Related research
Keywords: Structural VAR labor market dynamics the Beveridge curve

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Berument, Hakan & Dogan, Nukhet & Tansel, Aysit, 2008. "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment by Economic Activity: Evidence from Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 3461, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Annika Alexius & Bertil Holmlund, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Matthias S. Hertweck, 2006. "Strategic Wage Bargaining, Labor Market Volatility, and Persistence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/42, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrew McCallum & Frank Smets, 2007. "Real wages and monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1360, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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