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Productivity and unemployment over the business cycle

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  • Barnichon, Regis

Abstract

The low correlation between cyclical unemployment and productivity over the post-war period hides a large sign switch in the mid-1980s: from significantly negative the correlation became significantly positive. Using a search model of unemployment with nominal rigidities and variable labor effort, I show that technology shocks can generate a positive unemployment-productivity correlation whereas non-technology shocks (i.e. aggregate demand shocks) tend to do the opposite. In this context, I identify two events that can quantitatively explain the increase in the correlation: (i) a sharp drop in the volatility of non-technology shocks in the mid-1980s, and (ii) a decline in the response of productivity to non-technology shocks, which from procyclical became acyclical in the last 25 years.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 57 (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 1013-1025

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:57:y:2010:i:8:p:1013-1025

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2011. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 329-360 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jordi Galí, 2012. "Notes for a new guide to Keynes (I): Wages, aggregate demand, and employment," Economics Working Papers 1339, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2012.
  3. Lee E. Ohanian & Andrea Raffo, 2011. "Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: new measurement and implications for business cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers 1039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Okun’s macroscope and the changing cyclicality of underlying margins of adjustment," Working Paper Series 2013-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Eric Sims & Michael Jason Pries, 2011. "Reallocation and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations," 2011 Meeting Papers 1258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Andrew Figura, 2011. "Have cyclical movements in the unemployment rate become more persistent?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Fabrice Collard & Jacob Wong, 2011. "A Dynamic Model of Occupational Mobility, Structural Unemployment, Average Labour Productivity and Wage Dispersion," 2011 Meeting Papers 821, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Jordi Galí, 2012. "Notes for a New Guide to Keynes (I): Wages, Aggregate Demand, and Employment," NBER Working Papers 18651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Poilly, Céline & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Evaluating labor market reforms: A normative analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 156-170.
  10. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2013. "Performance pay and changes in U.S. labor market dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2796-2813.
  11. Michaillat, Pascal, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers Over the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 8610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Jordi Galí, 2012. "Notes for a New Guide to Keynes (I): Wages, Aggregate Demand, and Employment," Working Papers 662, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  13. Jeff E. Biddle, 2014. "Retrospectives: The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Productivity and the Emergence of the Labor Hoarding Concept," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 197-212, Spring.

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