Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies in the US and Europe

Contents:

Author Info

  • Alejandro Justiniano
  • Claudio Michelacci

Abstract

We set-up a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions driven by several shocks, which nests full Nash Bargaining and wage rigidity as special cases and includes other transmission mechanisms suggested by the literature for the propagation and amplification of disturbances. The model is estimated using full information methods for two Anglo-Saxon countries (the US and the UK), two Continental European countries (France and Germany) and two Scandinavian countries (Norway and Sweden). We conduct inference with mixed frequency data, combining quarterly series for unemployment, vacancies, GDP, consumption, and investment, with annual data on unemployment flows. Parameters and shocks are estimated separately for each country, which can then vary in terms of search and hiring costs, workers' bargaining power, unemployment benefits levels, wage rigidity and the stochastic properties of disturbances. Overall, the structural model accounts reasonably well for differences in labor market dynamics observed between the two sides of the Atlantic and within Europe. Our estimates indicate that there is considerable cross-country variation in the contribution of technology shocks to the cyclical fluctuations of the labor market. Technology shocks alone replicate remarkably well the volatility in vacancies, unemployment and finding probabilities observed in US, with mixed success in Europe. In contrast, matching shocks and job destruction shocks play a larger role in most European countries relative to the US.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17429.pdf
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17429.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17429

Note: EFG
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22.
  2. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2008. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-08-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2007. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," IEW - Working Papers 351, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  4. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Frank Schorfheide & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Maxym Kryshko & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2009. "Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours," NBER Working Papers 15375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1998. "The Role of Investment-Specific Technological Change in the Business Cycle," RCER Working Papers 449, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Shigeru Fugita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "Job matching and propagation," Working Papers 06-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Haefke, Christian & Sonntag, Marcus & van Rens, Thijs, 2012. "Wage Rigidity and Job Creation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  10. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2007. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," CSEF Working Papers 182, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  11. Ambler, S. & Cardia, E. & Zimmermann, C., 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  12. Burcu Eyigungor, 2008. "Specific capital and vintage effects on the dynamics of unemployment and vacancies," Working Papers 08-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. John Haltiwanger & Steven J. Davis, 1999. "On the Driving Forces behind Cyclical Movements in Employment and Job Reallocation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1234-1258, December.
  14. Hosios, Arthur J, 1990. "On the Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 279-98, April.
  15. Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Looking Into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," CEP Discussion Papers dp0470, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  16. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Labor supply heterogeneity and macroeconomic comovement," Staff Reports 399, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Working Papers 341, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  18. Simon Burgess & Helene Turon, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies – A Comment," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/573, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  19. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni & Olivier J. Blanchard, 2009. "News, Noise and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," 2009 Meeting Papers 99, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  20. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  21. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Robert E. Hall & Paul R. Milgrom, 2005. "The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain," NBER Working Papers 11245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Gary S. Anderson, 2006. "Solving linear rational expectations models: a horse race," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
  25. Petrongolo, Barbara & Pissarides, Christopher A., 2008. "The Ins and Outs of European Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 3315, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  26. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1996. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," RCER Working Papers 420, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  27. Shimer, Robert, 2008. "Comment on: "New Keynesian perspectives on labor market dynamics" by Tommy Sveen and Lutz Weinke," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 931-935, July.
  28. Silva, José Ignacio & Toledo, Manuel, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: The Role of Matching Costs Revisited," MPRA Paper 17719, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2009.
  29. Ch. Pissarides., 2011. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
  30. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2005. "Unemployment and vacancy fluctuations in the matching model: inspecting the mechanism," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 19-50.
  31. Wouter J. den Haan & Garey Ramey & Joel Watson, 1997. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 6275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Claudio Michelacci & David López-Salido, 2003. "Technology shocks and job flows," Banco de España Working Papers 0308, Banco de España.
  33. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  34. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuations with staggered Nash wage bargaining," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  35. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  36. Barro, Robert J., 1977. "Long-term contracting, sticky prices, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 305-316, July.
  37. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Anton A. Cheremukhin & Paulina Restrepo Echavarria, 2008. "The Labor Wedge as a Matching Friction," 2008 Meeting Papers 209, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  39. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
  40. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
  42. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 281-323, 04.
  43. Balakrishnan, R. & Michelacci, C., 1998. "Unemployment Dynamics Across OECD Countries," Papers 9806, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  44. Giorgio Primiceri & Ernst Schaumburg & Andrea Tambalotti, 2006. "Intertemporal disturbances," 2006 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  45. Hosios, Arthur J, 1994. "Unemployment and Vacancies with Sectoral Shifts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 124-44, March.
  46. Robert Shimer, 2004. "The Consequences of Rigid Wages in Search Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 469-479, 04/05.
  47. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2010. "Redistributive shocks and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 931-948, November.
  48. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2009. "Unemployment dynamics in the OECD," Working Paper Series 2009-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  49. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
  50. Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz, 2008. "New Keynesian perspectives on labor market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 921-930, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Francesco Furlanett & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching efficiency and business cycle fluctuations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17429

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.