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Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited

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  • Francis, Neville
  • Ramey, Valerie A.

Abstract

In this paper we re-examine the recent evidence that technology shocks do not produce business cycle patterns in the data. We first extend Gali's (1999) work, which uses long-run restrictions to identify technology shocks, by examining whether the identified shocks can be plausibly interpreted as technology shocks. We do this in three ways. First, we derive additional long-run restrictions and use them as tests of overidentification. Second, we compare the qualitative implications from the model with the impulse responses of variables such as wages and consumption. Third, we test whether some standard "exogenous" variables predict the shock variables. We find that ilshocks, military build-ups, and Romer dates do not predict the sholck labeled "technology." We then show ways in which a standard DGE model can be modified to fit Gali's finding that a positive technology shock leads to lower labor input. Finally, we re-examine the properties of the other key shock to the system.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 52 (2005)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 1379-1399

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:52:y:2005:i:8:p:1379-1399

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2006. "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 17-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  21. Michael Dotsey, 2002. "Structure from shocks," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 37-47.
  22. Ahmed, Shaghil & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1995. "Fiscal Trends in Real Economic Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 985-1001, November.
  23. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
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