This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The case of the missing productivity growth: or, does information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Susanto Basu
John G. Fernald
Nicholas Oulton
Sylaja Srinivasan

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Solow's paradox has disappeared in the United States but remains alive and well in the United Kingdom. In particular, the U.K. experienced an information and communications technology (ICT) investment boom in the 1990s in parallel with the U.S., but measured total factor productivity has decelerated rather than accelerated in recent years. We ask whether ICT can explain the divergent TFP performance in the two countries. Stories of ICT as a 'general purpose technology' suggest that measured TFP should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital; spillovers; or both), but perhaps with long lags. Contemporaneously, investments in ICT may in fact be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. ; In both the U.S. and U.K., we find a strong correlation between ICT use and industry TFP growth. The U.S. results are consistent with GPT stories: the acceleration after the mid-1990s was broadbased-located primarily in ICT-using industries rather than ICT-producing industries. Furthermore, industry TFP growth is positively correlated with industry ICT capital growth in the 1980s and early 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories would suggest, controlling for past ICT growth, industry TFP growth appears negatively correlated with increases in ICT usage in the late 1990s. A somewhat different picture emerges for the U.K. TFP growth does not appear correlated with lagged ICT investment. But TFP growth in the 1990s is strongly and positively associated with the growth of ICT capital services, while being strongly and negatively associated with the growth of ICT investment. If, as we argue, unmeasured investment in complementary capital is correlated with ICT investment, then this finding too is consistent with the GPT story. However, comparing the first and second halves of the 1990s, the net effect of ICT is positive, suggesting that ICT cannot explain the observed TFP slowdown. On the other hand, our results do suggest, albeit tentatively, that the U.K. could see an acceleration in TFP growth over the next decade.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/workingpapers/papers/wp2003-08.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-03-08.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-03-08

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 834, 230 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60690-0834
Phone: 312/322-5111
Fax: 312/322-5515
Email:
Web page: http://www.chicagofed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.frbchi.org/pubs-speech/publications/print_order_script.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Information technology Labor productivity Productivity

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Trajtenberg, M. & Bresnahan, T.F., 1992. "General Purpose Technologies: "Engines of Growth"," Papers 16-92, Tel Aviv.
    Other versions:
  2. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry. [Downloadable!]
  3. John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 1999. "Why is productivity procyclical? Why do we care?," International Finance Discussion Papers 638, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Charles R. Hulten, 1996. "Quality Change in Capital Goods and Its Impact on Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hasan Bakhshi & Nicholas Oulton & Jamie Thompson, . "Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 189, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1185-1202, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Oulton, Nicholas, 2001. "Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumol's Unbalanced Growth Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 605-27, October.
    Other versions:
  8. Nicholas Crafts & Mary O'Mahony, 2001. "A perspective on UK productivity performance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 271-306, September. [Downloadable!]
  9. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel Sullivan, 2001. "Growth in worker quality," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 53-74. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 15-44. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Francesco Caselli, 1999. "Technological Revolutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 78-102, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. repec:rus:hseeco:15966 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Stephen Nickell & Glenda Quintini, 2002. "The Recent Performance of the UK Labour Market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 202-220, June.
  16. Paul A. David & Gavin Wright, 1999. "General Purpose Technologies and Surges in Productivity: Historical Reflections on the Future of the ICT Revolution," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _031, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. David Card & Richard B. Freeman, 2002. "What Have Two Decades of British Economic Reform Delivered?," NBER Working Papers 8801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Nickell, Stephen J, 1996. "Competition and Corporate Performance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 724-46, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Martin Neil Baily & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2001. "Do We Have a New E-conomy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 308-312, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Philippe Aghion & Nicholas Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2002. "Competition and innovation: an inverted U relationship," IFS Working Papers W02/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Bruce T. Grimm & Brent R. Moulton & David B. Wasshausen, 2002. "Information Processing Equipment and Software in the National Accounts," BEA Working Papers 0005, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  24. Christopher Gust & Jaime Marquez, 2002. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," International Finance Discussion Papers 727, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  25. Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, . "Capital stocks, capital services, and depreciation: an integrated framework," Bank of England working papers 192, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  26. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "Mergers as Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 9279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Schreyer, Paul, 2002. "Computer Price Indices and International Growth and Productivity Comparisons," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 15-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Susanto Basu & Miles S. Kimball, 1997. "Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation," NBER Working Papers 5915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Brynjolfsson, Erik & Hitt, Lorin M., 2004. "Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence," Working papers 4210-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  30. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. C.J. Krizan & John Haltiwanger & Lucia Foster, 2002. "The Link Between Aggregate and Micro Productivity Growth: Evidence from Retail Trade," Working Papers 02-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  32. Elhanan Helpman & Manuel Trajtenberg, 1996. "Diffusion of General Purpose Technologies," NBER Working Papers 5773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Christopher Gust & Jaime Marquez, 2000. "Productivity developments abroad," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 665-681. [Downloadable!]
  34. James Bessen, 2002. "Technology Adoption Costs and Productivity Growth: The Transition to Information Technology," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 443-469, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Martin N. Baily & Robert Lawrence, 2001. "Do We Have A New E-Conomy?," NBER Working Papers 8243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? There are over 16000 authors registered on RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-26.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.