This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Explaining a Productive Decade

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Stephen D. Oliner (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board)
Daniel E. Sichel (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board)
Kevin J. Stiroh (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper analyzes the sources of recent U.S. productivity growth using both aggregate and industry-level data. The paper confirms the central role of information technology in the productivity revival during 1995-2000 and shows that it played a significant, although smaller, role after 2000. Productivity growth after 2000 appears to have been boosted by industry restructuring and cost cutting in response to profit pressures, an unlikely source of future strength. In addition, the incorporation of intangible capital into the growth accounting framework somewhat diminishes estimates of labor productivity's performance since 2000 and makes the gain during 1995-2000 look larger than in the official data. Finally, the paper examines the outlook for trend growth in labor productivity; the resulting estimate, which is subject to much uncertainty, is centered at 2 1/4 percent a year, faster than the lackluster pace that prevailed before 1995 but somewhat slower than the 1995-2000 average.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.brookings.edu/press/Journals/2007/brookingspapersoneconomicactivity12007.aspx
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution in its journal Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Volume (Year): 38 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2007-1 ()
Pages: 81-152
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:38:y:2007:i:2007-1:p:81-152

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036
Phone: (202) 797-6000
Fax: (202) 797-6004
Email:
Web page: http://www.brookings.edu/economics.aspx
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Lindsey Wilson).

Related research
Keywords: macroeconomics; productivity growth; labor productivity;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity
E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Robert E. Hall, 2004. "Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(3), pages 899-927, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Martin Neil Baily & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2001. "Do We Have a New E-conomy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 308-312, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995. "General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Kiley, Michael T., 2001. "Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 171-215, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Miles S. Kimball, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. John Roberts, 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 1(contribut), pages 1014-1014. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0716, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD, Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry. [Downloadable!]
  9. Norsworthy, J R & Malmquist, David H, 1983. "Input Measurement and Productivity Growth in Japanese and U.S. Manufacturing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 947-67, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. van Ark, Bart, 1998. "Productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 171-174, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. James A. Kahn & Jong-Soo Lim, 1998. "Skilled labor-augmenting technical progress in U.S. manufacturing," Staff Reports 47, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2007. "Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from US Industry Data," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8, pages 146-173, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. van Ark, Bart & Inklaar, Robert, 2006. "Catching up or getting stuck? Europe's troubles to exploit ICT's productivity potential," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-79, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen. [Downloadable!]
  14. John M. Roberts, 2001. "Estimates of the productivity trend using time-varying parameter techniques," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 1995. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 165-188, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Robert Inklaar & Mary O'Mahony & Marcel Timmer, 2005. "ICT AND EUROPE's PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE: INDUSTRY-LEVEL GROWTH ACCOUNT COMPARISONS WITH THE UNITED STATES," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(4), pages 505-536, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2003. "A closer look at jobless recoveries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-73. [Downloadable!]
  18. Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 513-42, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-2), pages 207-298. [Downloadable!]
  20. Carol Corrado & Paul Lengermann & Eric J. Bartelsman & J. Joseph Beaulieu, 2007. "Sectoral Productivity in the United States: Recent Developments and the Role of IT," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8, pages 188-210, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2002. "Information Technology, Workplace Organization, And The Demand For Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(1), pages 339-376, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Francesco Daveri & Andrea Mascotto, . "The IT revolution across the U.S. states," Working Papers 226, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  23. Charlotta Groth & Soledad Nuñez & Sylaja Srinivasan, . "Productivity growth, adjustment costs and variable factor utilisation: the UK case," Bank of England working papers 295, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  24. Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Shifting trends in semiconductor prices and the pace of technological progress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  25. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2006. "Tracking productivity in real time," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  26. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 261, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Charlotta Groth, . "Estimating UK capital adjustment costs," Bank of England working papers 258, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  28. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. C.J. Krizan & John Haltiwanger & Lucia Foster, 2002. "The Link Between Aggregate and Micro Productivity Growth: Evidence from Retail Trade," Working Papers 02-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  30. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U. S. Economy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1911, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  31. Sandra E. Black & Lisa M. Lynch, 2001. "How To Compete: The Impact Of Workplace Practices And Information Technology On Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 434-445, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Martin N. Baily, 2004. "Recent productivity growth: the role of information technology and other innovations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 35-42. [Downloadable!]
  33. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21. [Downloadable!]
  34. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  35. Erica L. Groshen & Simon Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug. [Downloadable!]
  36. Leonard Nakamura, 1999. "Intangibles: what put the new in the new economy?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
  37. Martin N. Baily & Robert Lawrence, 2001. "Do We Have A New E-Conomy?," NBER Working Papers 8243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Randy Becker & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Shawn Klimek & Dan Wilson, 2005. "Micro and Macro Data Integration: The Case of Capital," Working Papers 05-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Janet L. Yellen, 2007. "The U.S. economy and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jul 13. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes book chapters.

This page was last updated on 2009-6-28.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.