IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/7180.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation

Author

Listed:
  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

If firms purchase capital up to the point where there is no further marginal benefit, and the firms' securities are equal in value to the capital, then the market value of securities measures the quantity of capital. I explore the implications of this hypothesis using data from U.S. non-farm, non-financial corporations over the past 50 years. The hypothesis implies that corporations have formed large amounts of intangible capital, especially in the past decade. The resources for expanding capital have come from the output of the existing capital. An endogenous growth model can explain the basic facts about corporate performance, with only a modest increase in the productivity of capital in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Hall, 1999. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 7180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7180
    Note: EFG PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7180.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Nellie Liang & Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Share repurchases and employee stock options and their implications for S&P 500 share retirements and expected returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. David F. Bradford, 1991. "Market Value versus Financial Accounting Measures of National Saving," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 15-48, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
    4. Martin Neil Baily, 1981. "Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 1-66.
    5. Bradford, D.F., 1989. "Market Value Us. Financial Accounting Measures Of National Saving," Papers 34, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
    6. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 513-542.
    7. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
    8. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1999. "The Corporate Cost of Capital and the Return on Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 1939-1967, December.
    9. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2000. "The Stock Market and Investment in the New Economy: Some Tangible Facts and Intangible Fictions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 61-124.
    10. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Padamja Singal & Stephen D. Smith, 1999. "Expected stock returns and volatility in a production economy: a theory and some evidence," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    13. R. E. Hall, 1968. "Technical Change and Capital from the Point of View of the Dual," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 35(1), pages 35-46.
    14. Abel, Andrew B., 1990. "Consumption and investment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 725-778, Elsevier.
    15. Kreps, David M., 1981. "Arbitrage and equilibrium in economies with infinitely many commodities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-35, March.
    16. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    17. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
    18. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "Production Based Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 2776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    20. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    22. Naik, Vasanttilak, 1994. "Asset Prices in Dynamic Production Economies with Time-Varying Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 781-801.
    23. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven, 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 4, pages 43-104.
    24. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 1994. "Computers and Output Growth Revisited: How Big Is the Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 273-334.
    25. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    26. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    27. William G. Gale & John Sabelhaus, 1999. "Perspectives on the Household Saving Rate," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 181-224.
    28. Shoven, John B. & Bernheim, B. Douglas (ed.), 1991. "National Saving and Economic Performance," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226044040, December.
    29. B. Douglas Bernheim & John B. Shoven, 1991. "National Saving and Economic Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern91-2, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Warwick J McKibbin & Peter J Wilcoxen, 1997. "Macroeconomic Volatility In General Equilibrium," Departmental Working Papers 1998-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, revised Jun 1998.
    2. Sapienza, Paola & Polk, Christopher, 2003. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2006. "Returns to equity, investment and Q: evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 310, Bank of England.
    5. Nazim Belhocine, 2008. "The Embodiment Of Intangible Investment Goods: A Q-theory Approach," Working Paper 1217, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    6. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
    7. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2006. "On the Accuracy of Different Measures of Q," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 35(3), Autumn.
    8. Demetrios Eliades & Olaf Weeken, 2005. "The stock market and capital accumulation: an application to UK data," Bank of England working papers 251, Bank of England.
    9. Yashiv, Eran, 2012. "Frictions and the Joint Behavior of Hiring and Investment," IZA Discussion Papers 6636, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Gourio, François, 2011. "Putty-clay technology and stock market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 117-131, March.
    11. Lin, Xiaoji & Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2018. "Investment, Tobin’s q, and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 620-640.
    12. Kevin L. Reffett & Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Evaluating Asset Pricing Implications of DSGE Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1630, Econometric Society.
    13. Jonathan D. Quartey, 2021. "Addressing the Missing Link for Sustainable African Continental Free Trade: Lessons from Ghana’s Manufacturing Industry," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, March.
    14. Jonathan Temple, 2002. "The Assessment: The New Economy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 241-264.
    15. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    16. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 115-136.
    17. Lizal, L., 1999. "Does a Soft Macroeconomic Environment Induce Restructuring on the Microeconomic Level during the Transition Period? Evidence from Investment Behavior of Czech Enterprises," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp147, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    18. Cristina Barceló, 2007. "A Q-model of labour demand," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 31(1), pages 43-78, January.
    19. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    20. Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Endogenous technological progress and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 411-427.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.