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The IT Revolution and the Stock Market

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Author Info
Jeremy Greenwood
Boyan Jovanovic

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Abstract

A new technology or product is often developed by the single entrepreneur. Whether he reaches the public offering stage or is acquired by a listed firm it takes time for the innovator to add value to the stock market. Indeed first, reduce the market's value because some firms -- usually large or old -- will cling to old technologies that have lost their momentum. This paper argue that (a) the market declined in the late 1960s because it felt that the old technologies either had lost their momentum or would give way to IT, and that (b) IT innovators boosted the stock market's value only in the 1980s. If the stock market provides a forecast of future events, then the recent dramatic upswing represents a rosy estimate about growth in future profits for the economy. This translates into a forecast of higher output and productivity growth, holding other things equal (such as capital's share of income).

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6931.

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Date of creation: Feb 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6931

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O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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  1. Quantitative Macroeconomics and Real Business Cycles (QM&RBC)
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kortum, Samuel & Lerner, Josh, 1998. "Stronger protection or technological revolution: what is behind the recent surge in patenting?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 247-304, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kortum, Samuel & Lerner, Josh, 1999. "What is behind the recent surge in patenting?1," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2000. "The Interaction between Product Market and Financing Strategy: The Role of Venture Capital," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 959-84.
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