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Share repurchases and employee stock options and their implications for S&P 500 share retirements and expected returns

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Author Info
J. Nellie Liang
Steven A. Sharpe

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Abstract

We estimate the effects of share repurchases and employee stock option exercises on net share retirements for large S&P 500 companies. We find that, over the past five years, gross repurchases have reduced shares outstanding 2 percent annually; but, owing to the exercise of employee stock options, only about half of those shares were actually retired. Given the recent pace of employee stock option grants, and assuming that equities continue to be priced at about 30 times earnings, our analysis suggests that the pace of net share retirements will fall well below the pace of the last few years, unless corporations use nearly all their earnings to fund shareholder payouts. Moreover, over the long haul, assuming corporations need to retain 40 to 50 percent of their earnings to invest and grow at historical rates, the long-run average pace of net share retirements is likely to fall to 1/2 percent or less.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-59.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-59

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Keywords: Stock - Prices Stocks

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jagannathan, Murali & Stephens, Clifford P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2000. "Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 355-384, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Huddart, Steven & Lang, Mark, 1996. "Employee stock option exercises an empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jennifer N. Carpenter, 1997. "The Exercise and Valuation of Executive Stock Options," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-017, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  4. Jennifer Carpenter, 1997. "The Exercise and Valuation of Executive Stock Options," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 97-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  5. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1988. "Management ownership and market valuation : An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 293-315, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. George W. Fenn & Nellie Liang, 1999. "Corporate payout policy and managerial stock incentives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1185-1202, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Robert M. Gillenkirch & Markus C. Arnold, 2002. "Stock Options as Incentive Contract and Dividend Policy," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 89, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hess, Dieter E. & Lüders, Erik, 2000. "New economy accounting : why are broad-based stock option plans so attractive?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-39, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. John B. Carlson & Eduard A. Pelz & Mark Wohar, 2001. "Will the valuation ratios revert to their historical means? Some evidence from breakpoint tests," Working Paper 0113, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Özgür Orhangazi, 2007. "Financialization and Capital Accumulation in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector," Working Papers wp149, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst. [Downloadable!]
  6. Nellie Liang & Scott Weisbenner, 2001. "Who benefits from a bull market? an analysis of employee stock option grants and stock prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Scott J. Weisbenner, 2000. "Corporate share repurchases in the 1990s: what role do stock options play?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. J. Weston & Juan Siu, 2003. "Changing Motives for Share Repurchases," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1036, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Francis Longstaff & Monika Piazzesi, 2003. "Corporate Earnings and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 10054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Gene D'Avolio & Efi Gildor & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "Technology, information production, and market efficiency," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 125-160. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Orhangazi, Ozgur, 2007. "Financialization and Capital Accumulation in the Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation on the US Economy, 1973-2004," MPRA Paper 7724, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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