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Macroeconomic Volatility In General Equilibrium

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  • Warwick J McKibbin

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  • Peter J Wilcoxen

Abstract

In this paper we explore the concept of excess volatility in general equilibrium. We show there is a fundamental tension between household efforts to smooth consumption and attempts by firms’ to smooth investment in the presence of convex adjustment costs in capital formation. Adjustment costs substantially diminish the ability of households to smooth consumption. As a result, consumption volatility will be significantly higher in the presence of adjustment costs than would be expected from the permanent income model alone. Moreover adjustment costs can cause consumption and asset prices to change discontinuously at the moment of implementation of a previously anticipated event, a phenomenon that does not occur in models without adjustment costs.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp1998/bdp1401.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 1998-07.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jan 1997
Date of revision: Jun 1998
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:1998-07

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  1. Michener, Ron, 1984. "Permanent income in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-305, May.
  2. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Scholarly Articles 3353762, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Campbell, John & Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Why Is Consumption So Smooth?," Scholarly Articles 3221494, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. John Y. Campbell, 1988. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sanford J Grossman & Guy Laroque, 2003. "Asset Pricing and Optimal Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Illiquid Durable Consumption Goods," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000803, David K. Levine.
  6. Flavin, Marjorie, 1993. "The Excess Smoothness of Consumption: Identification and Interpretation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 651-66, July.
  7. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
  8. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-81, March.
  9. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321.
  10. Codsi, George & Pearson, K R & Wilcoxen, Peter J, 1992. "General-Purpose Software for Intertemporal Economic Models," Computer Science in Economics & Management, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 57-79, February.
  11. Hamermesh, Daniel S & Pfann, Gerard Antonie, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," CEPR Discussion Papers 1371, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  13. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  15. Cochrane, John H, 1991. " Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-37, March.
  16. Ravn, Morten O, 1997. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks, and the UK Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 27-48, Jan.-Feb..
  17. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  18. Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1983. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," NBER Working Papers 0885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  20. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
  21. Uzawa, H, 1969. "Time Preference and the Penrose Effect in a Two-Class Model of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 628-52, Part II, .
  22. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "Production Based Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 2776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim, 2013. "Forward-looking and myopic regional Computable General Equilibrium models: How significant is the distinction?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 160-176.
  2. Warwick J. McKibbin & Kang Yong Tan, 2006. "Learning And International Transmission Shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2007-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Pratt, Stephen & Blake, Adam & Swann, Peter, 2013. "Dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty: Uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 429-439.

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