IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pas/papers/1998-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Volatility In General Equilibrium

Author

Listed:
  • Warwick J McKibbin
  • Peter J Wilcoxen

Abstract

In this paper we explore the concept of excess volatility in general equilibrium. We show there is a fundamental tension between household efforts to smooth consumption and attempts by firms’ to smooth investment in the presence of convex adjustment costs in capital formation. Adjustment costs substantially diminish the ability of households to smooth consumption. As a result, consumption volatility will be significantly higher in the presence of adjustment costs than would be expected from the permanent income model alone. Moreover adjustment costs can cause consumption and asset prices to change discontinuously at the moment of implementation of a previously anticipated event, a phenomenon that does not occur in models without adjustment costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J McKibbin & Peter J Wilcoxen, 1997. "Macroeconomic Volatility In General Equilibrium," Departmental Working Papers 1998-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, revised Jun 1998.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:1998-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp1998/bdp1401.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Laroque, Guy, 1990. "Asset Pricing and Optimal Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Illiquid Durable Consumption Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 25-51, January.
    3. John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989. "Why is Consumption So Smooth?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
    4. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 675-692, May.
    5. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
    6. Michener, Ron, 1984. "Permanent income in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-305, May.
    7. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    8. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, March.
    9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    10. Uzawa, H, 1969. "Time Preference and the Penrose Effect in a Two-Class Model of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 628-652, Part II, .
    11. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    12. J. P. Gould, 1968. "Adjustment Costs in the Theory of Investment of the Firm," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 35(1), pages 47-55.
    13. Ravn, Morten O, 1997. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks, and the UK Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 27-48, Jan.-Feb..
    14. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    15. Codsi, George & Pearson, K R & Wilcoxen, Peter J, 1992. "General-Purpose Software for Intertemporal Economic Models," Computer Science in Economics & Management, Kluwer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 57-79, February.
    16. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    17. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-481, March.
    18. John H. Cochrane, 1988. "Production Based Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 2776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    20. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    21. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    22. Marjorie Flavin, 1993. "The Excess Smoothness of Consumption: Identification and Interpretation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 651-666.
    23. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    24. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321-321.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Tan, Kang Yong, 2009. "Learning and international transmission of shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1033-1052, September.
    2. Pratt, Stephen & Blake, Adam & Swann, Peter, 2013. "Dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty: Uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 429-439.
    3. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim, 2013. "Forward-looking and myopic regional Computable General Equilibrium models: How significant is the distinction?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 160-176.
    4. Akshay Shanker & Sacha Vidler, 2014. "Offsets to compulsory superannuation: do people consciously choose their level of retirement saving?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-65, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abel, Andrew B., 1990. "Consumption and investment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 725-778, Elsevier.
    2. Takala, Kari, 1995. "The consumption function revisited : an error-correction model for Finnish consumption," Research Discussion Papers 20/1995, Bank of Finland.
    3. Parise, Gerald F., 1994. "Permanent income hypothesis and the cost of adjustment," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000012303, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Takala, Kari, 1995. "The consumption function revisited: an error-correction model for Finnish consumption," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/1995, Bank of Finland.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Wei Jin, 2012. "Can Technological Innovation Help China Take on Its Climate Responsibility? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2012-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2012. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3309-3322, September.
    8. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    9. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Soyoung Kim, 2008. "Incomplete Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Incomplete Risk Sharing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1521-1531, October.
    10. Cheng K. Wu, 1997. "New Result in Theory of Consumption: Changes in Savings and Income Growth," Macroeconomics 9706007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Takala, Kari, 1995. "Permanent income hypothesis and saving in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 15/1995, Bank of Finland.
    13. Takala, Kari, 1995. "Permanent income hypothesis and saving in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1995, Bank of Finland.
    14. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.
    15. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Consumption Demand," NBER Working Papers 6466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Serensen & Oved Yosha, 2002. "Consumption and Aggregate Constraints: Evidence from U.S. States and Canadian Provinces," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 634-645, June.
    17. Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2000. "How Significant are Departures from Certainty Equivalence? Some Analytical and Empirical Results," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 597-617, July.
    18. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    19. repec:pri:wwseco:dp232 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jose Luengo-Prado, Maria, 2006. "Durables, nondurables, down payments and consumption excesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1509-1539, October.
    21. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    22. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1997_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Rappaport, Jordan, 2006. "A bottleneck capital model of development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2113-2129, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pas:papers:1998-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prema-chandra Athukorala (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.