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Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom

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  • Hasan Bakhshi
  • Nicholas Oulton
  • Jamie Thompson

Abstract

In recent work, Stacey Tevlin and Karl Whelan argue that aggregate econometric models fail to capture the US investment boom in plant and machinery in the second half of the 1990s, whereas a disaggregated approach does much better. In particular, they show that aggregate models do not capture the increase in replacement investment associated with compositional shifts in the capital stock towards high depreciation rate assets, such as computers. And aggregate models invariably find little or no role for the real user cost, so do not pick up the strong effects of relative price declines on investment in computers. In this paper, a data set for the United Kingdom is constructed in order to investigate the ability of different equations to account for the UK boom in plant and machinery investment in the second half of the 1990s. The findings are similar to those of Tevlin and Whelan, whose analysis is extended in two main ways. First, the failure of the aggregate equations is explained more formally in terms of misspecification when relative prices are trending downwards. Second, the econometric analysis is conducted in a formal cointegration framework. As in the United States, the paper shows that asset-level equations can explain the investment boom in plant and machinery in the second half of the 1990s in the United Kingdom, whereas the aggregate equation fails completely.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan Bakhshi & Nicholas Oulton & Jamie Thompson, 2003. "Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 189, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.
    2. Fatica, Serena, 2018. "Business capital accumulation and the user cost: Is there a heterogeneity bias?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 15-34.
    3. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?," NBER Working Papers 10010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Paolo Lucchino & Dr Justin van de Ven, 2013. "Modelling the dynamic effects of transfer policy: the LINDA policy analysis tool," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 405, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 9-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert S. Chirinko, 2008. "ó: The Long And Short Of It," CESifo Working Paper Series 2234, CESifo.
    7. Rebecca Riley, 2013. "Modelling Demand for Low Skilled/Low Paid Labour: Exploring the Employment Trade-Offs of a Living Wage," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 404, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2008. "Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    9. Rebecca Riley, 2013. "Modelling Demand for Low Skilled/Low Paid Labour: Exploring the Employment Trade-Offs of a Living Wage," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 404, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    10. Elena Crivellaro & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou, 2019. "The role of financial constraints on labour share developments: macro- and micro-level evidence," Working Papers 257, Bank of Greece.
    11. Chirinko, Robert S., 2008. "[sigma]: The long and short of it," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 671-686, June.
    12. Lynne Cockerell & Steven Pennings, 2007. "Private Business Investment in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Colin Ellis & Simon Price, 2003. "UK business investment: long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics," Bank of England working papers 196, Bank of England.
    14. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    15. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2006. "Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2006/152, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Colin Ellis & Simon Price, 2004. "UK Business Investment and the User Cost of Capital," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(s1), pages 72-93, September.
    17. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2008. "Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    18. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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