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Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from US Industry Data

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Author Info
Susanto Basu
John Fernald

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Abstract

Many people point to information and communications technology (ICT) as the key for understanding the acceleration in productivity in the United States since the mid-1990s. Stories of ICT as a 'general-purpose technology' suggest that measured total factor productivity (TFP) should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital; spillovers; or both), but with a long lag. Contemporaneously, however, investments in ICT may be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. We find that US industry results are consistent with general-purpose technology (GPT) stories: the acceleration after the mid-1990s was broad-based - located primarily in ICT-using industries rather than ICT-producing industries. Furthermore, industry TFP accelerations in the 2000s are positively correlated with (appropriately weighted) industry ICT capital growth in the 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories would suggest, after controlling for past ICT investment, industry TFP accelerations are negatively correlated with increases in ICT usage in the 2000s. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2007.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2007.00402.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 8 (2007)
Issue (Month): (05)
Pages: 146-173
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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:146-173

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  1. Meijers, Huub, 2007. "ICT Externalities: Evidence from cross country data," UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 021, United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  2. Danny Leung & Yi Zheng, 2008. "What Affects MFP in the Long-Run? Evidence from Canadian Industries," Working Papers 08-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel. & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Explaining a productive decade," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "A retrospective look at the U.S. productivity growth resurgence," Staff Reports 277, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Sumner La Croix, 2007. "Decomposing and Analyzing Korea’s Declining GDP Growth: Some Cautions and Suggestions," Working Papers 200721, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bharat Trehan, 2007. "Changing productivity trends," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Aug 31. [Downloadable!]
  7. John Fernald & David Thipphavong & Bharat Trehan, 2007. "Will fast productivity growth persist?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr 6. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jukka Jalava & Ilja Kristian Kavonius, 2008. "The effect of durable goods and ICT on euro area productivity growth?," Working Paper Series 940, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Barry P. Bosworth & Jack E. Triplett, 2007. "The Early 21st Century U.S. Productivity Expansion is Still in Services," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 3-19, Spring. [Downloadable!]
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