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Productivity growth in UK industries, 1970-2000: structural change and the role of ICT

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Nicholas Oulton
Sylaja Srinivasan

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Abstract

This paper uses a new industry-level dataset to quantify the roles of structural change and information and communication technology (ICT) in explaining productivity growth in the United Kingdom, 1970-2000. The dataset is for 34 industries covering the whole economy, of which 31 industries are in the market sector. Using growth accounting, we find that ICT capital accounted for 13% of productivity growth in the market sector in 1970-79 (ie 0.47 percentage points out of 3.62% per annum growth of GDP per hour), 26% in 1979-90, and 28% in 1990-2000. In 1995-2000 the proportion rises to 47%. ICT capital, despite only being a small fraction of the total capital stock, contributed as much to growth as non-ICT capital in 1990-2000 and getting on for twice as much in 1995-2000. Econometric evidence also supports an important role for ICT. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth slowed down in 1995-2000, but we find econometric evidence that a boom in 'complementary investment', ie expenditure on reorganisation that accompanies ICT investment but is not officially measured as investment, could have led to a decline in the conventional measure of TFP growth.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 259.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:259

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  1. Trajtenberg, M. & Bresnahan, T.F., 1992. "General Purpose Technologies: "Engines of Growth"," Papers 16-92, Tel Aviv.
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  2. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD, Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry. [Downloadable!]
  3. Oulton, Nicholas, 2001. "Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumol's Unbalanced Growth Revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 605-27, October.
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  4. Nicholas Oulton, 2004. "A Statistical Framework for the Analysis of Productivity and Sustainable Development," CEP Discussion Papers dp0629, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-2), pages 207-298. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Z, Griliches ; Jacques Mairesse, . "Production Functions : The Search for Identification," Working Papers 97-30, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Elhanan Helpman & Manuel Trajtenberg, 1994. "A Time to Sow and a Time to Reap: Growth Based on General Purpose Technologies," NBER Working Papers 4854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Stiroh, Kevin J, 2002. "Are ICT Spillovers Driving the New Economy?," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 33-57, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "U.S. Economic Growth at the Industry Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 161-167, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, . "Capital stocks, capital services, and depreciation: an integrated framework," Bank of England working papers 192, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  13. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2004. "Measuring capital and technology: an expanded framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Paul Schreyer, 2001. "The OECD Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measurement of Industry-Level and Aggregate Productivity," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 2, pages 37-51, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  16. Baumol, William J & Wolff, Edward N, 1984. "On Interindustry Differences in Absolute Productivity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1017-34, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Kevin Stiroh, 2003. "Growth of US Industries and Investments in Information Technology and Higher Education," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 279-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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