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Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications

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Author Info
Robert J. Gordon (Northwestern University)

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Abstract

This paper provides a new breakdown of past U.S. economic growth into its trend and cyclical components, using a mix of detrending methods. This decomposition is then used to interpret the extraordinary productivity performance of the U.S. economy since 1995 and especially since mid-2000. The paper then discusses some issues involved in projecting the components of the output identity over long periods, and reports forecasts of growth in U.S. potential real GDP over the next two decades.

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File URL: http://www.brookings.edu/press/Journals/2004/bpea20032.aspx
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution in its journal Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Volume (Year): 34 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2003-2 ()
Pages: 207-298
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Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:34:y:2003:i:2003-2:p:207-298

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Related research
Keywords: macroeconomics; Productivity Growth; Context; Causes; Implications;

Cited by:
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  1. Gloria Alonso & Juan Nicolás Hernandez & José David Pulido & Martha Lucía Villa, . "Medidas alternativas de tasa de cambio real para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 514, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer & Bart van Ark, 2006. "Mind the gap! International comparisons of productivity in services and goods production," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-175, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel. & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Explaining a productive decade," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2004. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Robert J. Gordon, 2009. "Misperceptions About the Magnitude and Timing of Changes in American Income Inequality," NBER Working Papers 15351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2005. "Productivity Growth and the Role of ICT in the United Kingdom: An Industry View, 1970-2000," CEP Discussion Papers dp0681, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2007. "Appreciating the Renminbi," Departmental Working Papers 2007-09, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jagadeesh Gokhale, 2006. "Wage Growth and the Measurement of Social Security's Financial Condition," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_461, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dew-Becker, Ian & Gordon, Robert J, 2008. "Controversies about the Rise in American Inequality: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Robert J. Gordon, 2005. "What Caused the Decline in U.S. Business Cycle Volatility?," NBER Working Papers 11777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rochelle Edge & Thomas Laubach, 2004. "Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 123, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Miguel A. Ferreira & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Evaluating interest rate covariance models within a value-at-risk framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  13. Janet L. Yellen, 2005. "The U.S. economic outlook," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb 11. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, . "Productivity growth in UK industries, 1970-2000: structural change and the role of ICT," Bank of England working papers 259, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-8.

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