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Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence

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Author Info
Ho, Mun () (Resources for the Future)
Jorgenson, Dale
Stiroh, Kevin

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. labor productivity growth in the post-1995 period and presents projections for both output and labor productivity growth for the next decade. Despite the recent downward revisions to U.S. GDP and software investment, we show that information technology (IT) played a substantial role in the U.S. productivity revival. We then outline a methodology for projecting trend output and productivity growth. Our base-case projection puts the rate of trend productivity growth at 2.21% per year over the next decade with a range of 1.33 - 2.92%, reflecting fundamental uncertainties about the rate of technological progress in IT-production and investment patterns. Our central projection is only slightly below the average growth rate of 2.36% during the 1995-2000 period.

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Paper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-02-42.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-02-42

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Related research
Keywords: productivity; information technology;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic implications of the new economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 201-268. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2000-1), pages 125-236. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP01-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bart Hobijn, 2001. "Is equipment price deflation a statistical artifact?," Staff Reports 139, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," NBER Working Papers 7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. John Roberts, 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 1(contribut), pages 1014-1014. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ana Aizcorbe, 2002. "Why are semiconductor prices falling so fast? Industry estimates and implications for productivity measurement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Mark W. French, 2001. "Estimating changes in trend growth of total factor productivity: Kalman and H-P filters versus a Markov-switching framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. John M. Roberts, 2001. "Estimates of the productivity trend using time-varying parameter techniques," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "A retrospective look at the U.S. productivity growth resurgence," Staff Reports 277, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jordan Rappaport, 2004. "A simple model of city crowdedness," Research Working Paper RWP 04-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. Graciela Chichilnisky & Olga Gorbachev, 2004. "Volatility in the knowledge economy," Discussion Papers 0304-13, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Carol A. Corrado & Charles R. Hulten & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Intangible Capital and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 11948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Benoît Robidoux & Bing-Sun Wong, 2003. "Has Trend Productivity Growth Increased in Canada?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 6, pages 47-55, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ana Aizcorbe & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model," Industrial Organization 0412008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jukka Jalava, 2002. "The Production and Use of ICT in Finland," Discussion Papers 827, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fernando Lera & Margarita Billón, 2004. "The North-South Digital Divide in Information and Communication Technologies Development: the Case for Spanish Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa04p307, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dale Jorgenson & Mun Ho & Kevin Stiroh, 2003. "Growth of US Industries and Investments in Information Technology and Higher Education," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 279-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Volatility accounting: a production perspective on increased economic stability," Staff Reports 245, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 15-44. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  13. Martin Neil Baily, 2002. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The New Economy: Post Mortem or Second Wind?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 3-22, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel. & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Explaining a productive decade," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2002. "Stock Market Boom and the Productivity Gains of the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 9034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hélène Baudchon, 2002. "The Aftermath of the "New Economy" Bust : a Case Study of Five OECD Countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  17. Leonardo Becchetti & Fabrizio Adriani, 2003. "Does the Digital Divide Matter? The Role of Information and Communication Technology in Cross-country Level and Growth Estimates?," CEIS Research Paper 4, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  18. Alan Hughes & Michael S Scott Morton, 2005. "ICT and productivity growth - the paradox resolved?," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp316, ESRC Centre for Business Research. [Downloadable!]
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