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A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions

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  • Kitchen, John

Abstract

This paper examines the relative reliability of alternative measures of employment around business cycle turning points, with particular focus on the behavior of the series at the critical business cycle phase of early expansion phase following a recession. Historical evidence shows that the initial “real time” changes in household employment have provided information for subsequent revisions to the estimates of changes in payroll employment.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21070/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21070.

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Date of creation: Aug 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21070

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Related research

Keywords: employment; payroll jobs; surveys;

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References

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  1. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kitchen, John, 2003. "Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections," MPRA Paper 22004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 1999. "Explaining the recent divergence in payroll and household employment growth," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Dec).
  5. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Jeremy Smith, 2004. "Aggregate Labour Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States: Definitions, Trends and Measurement Issues," CSLS Research Reports 2004-04, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
  2. Marcelle, Chauvet & Jeremy, Piger, 2010. "Employment and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 34103, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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