A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions
AbstractThis paper examines the relative reliability of alternative measures of employment around business cycle turning points, with particular focus on the behavior of the series at the critical business cycle phase of early expansion phase following a recession. Historical evidence shows that the initial “real time” changes in household employment have provided information for subsequent revisions to the estimates of changes in payroll employment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21070.
Date of creation: Aug 2003
Date of revision:
employment; payroll jobs; surveys;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
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