Ex Post Versus Ex Ante Measures Of The User Cost Of Capital
AbstractShould we use ex post or ex ante measures of user costs to calculate the contribution of capital in a growth accounting exercise? The answer, based on a simple model of temporary equilibrium, is that ex post is better in theory. In practice researchers usually calculate ex post user costs by assuming that the rate of return is equalized across assets. But this is only true if expectations are correct. In general, the ex post rate of return differs between assets, even though ex ante it is the same. I propose a hybrid method. The index of capital services is estimated using ex ante weights; the contribution of capital is the growth of this index multiplied by the ex post income share of capital. I show that this method is theoretically correct if the production function is CES. I compare the ex post, ex ante and hybrid methods using data for 31 U.K. industries from 1970 to 2000. Copyright 2007 The Author; Journal compilation International Association for Research in Income and Wealth 2007.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in its journal Review of Income and Wealth.
Volume (Year): 53 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0034-6586
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Other versions of this item:
- Nicholas Oulton, 2005. "Ex Post Versus Ex Ante Measures of the User Cost of Capital," CEP Discussion Papers dp0698, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Nicholas Oulton, 2005. "Ex post versus ex ante measures of the user cost of capital," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19885, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
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