A Time to Sow and a Time to Reap: Growth Based on General Purpose Technologies
AbstractWe develop a model of growth driven by successive improvements in `General Purpose Technologies' (GPTs), such as the steam engine, electricity, or micro-electronics. Each new generation of GPTs prompts investments in complementary inputs and impacts the economy after enough such compatible inputs become available. The long-run dynamics take the form of recurrent cycles: during the first phase of each cycle output and productivity grow slowly or even decline, and it is only in the second phase that growth starts in earnest. The historical record of productivity growth associated with electrification, and perhaps also of computerization lately, may offer supportive evidence for this pattern. In lieu of analytical comparative dynamics, we conduct simulations of the model over a wide range of parameters, and analyse the results statistically. We extend the model to allow for skilled and unskilled labour, and explore the implications for the behaviour over time of their relative wages. We also explore diffusion in the context of a multi-sector economy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1080.
Date of creation: Dec 1994
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Other versions of this item:
- Elhanan Helpman & Manuel Trajtenberg, 1994. "A Time to Sow and a Time to Reap: Growth Based on General Purpose Technologies," NBER Working Papers 4854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
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- Trajtenberg, M. & Bresnahan, T.F., 1992.
"General Purpose Technologies: "Engines of Growth","
16-92, Tel Aviv.
- David, P.A., 1989. "Computer And Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox In A Not-Too Distant Mirror," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 339, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Shapiro,Helen, 1994. "Engines of Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521416405, November.
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