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The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective

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Crafts, Nicholas

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Abstract

A growth accounting methodology is used to compare the contributions to growth in terms of capital-deepening and total factor productivity growth of three general-purpose technologies, namely, steam in Britain during 1780-1860, electricity and information and communications technology in the United States during 1899-1929 and 1974-2000, respectively. The format permits explicit comparison of earlier episodes with the results for ICT obtained by Oliner and Sichel. The results suggest that the contribution of ICT was already relatively large before 1995 and it is suggested that the true productivity paradox is why economists expected more sooner from ICT.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3142.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3142

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Related research
Keywords: general purpose technologies; growth accounting; productivity paradox;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Trajtenberg, M. & Bresnahan, T.F., 1992. "General Purpose Technologies: "Engines of Growth"," Papers 16-92, Tel Aviv.
    Other versions:
  3. Nicholas Oulton, . "ICT and productivity growth in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 140, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David, P.A., 1989. "Computer And Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox In A Not-Too Distant Mirror," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 339, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2000-1), pages 125-236. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Devine, Warren D., 1983. "From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 347-372, June. [Downloadable!]
  7. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," NBER Working Papers 7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Paul A. David & Gavin Wright, 2005. "Early Twentieth Century Productivity Growth Dynamics: An Inquiry into the Economic History of “Our Ignorance”," Macroeconomics 0502023, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD, Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry. [Downloadable!]
  12. Karl Whelan, 2000. "Computers, obsolescence, and productivity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Martin Brookes & Zaki Wahhaj, 2001. "Is the Internet Better than Electricity?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, PO Box 69, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, RG9 1GB, vol. 2(2), pages 53-72, April. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "Information technology and the U.S. productivity revival: what do the industry data say?," Staff Reports 115, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Robert H. McGuckin & Kevin Stiroh, 2000. "Do Computers Make Output Harder to Measure?," Economics Program Working Papers 00-02, The Conference Board, Economics Program. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Dirk Pilat & Frank C. Lee, 2001. "Productivity Growth in ICT-producing and ICT-using Industries: A Source of Growth Differentials in the OECD?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2001/4, OECD, Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jack E. Triplett, 1999. "The Solow productivity paradox: what do computers do to productivity?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 309-334, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cette, G. & Pfister, C., 2003. "The Challenges of the "New Economy" for Monetary Policy," Documents de Travail 100, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Haacker, Markus, 2002. "It's Not What You Make, It's How You Use IT: Measuring the Welfare Benefits of the IT Revolution Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Cette, G. & Mairesse, J. & Kocoglu, Y., 2004. "ICT Diffusion and Potential Output Growth," Documents de Travail 112, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Nicholas Oulton, . "ICT and productivity growth in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 140, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mª Teresa Sanchis Llopis, 2005. "Disaggregated Productivity Growth and Technological Progress in the interpretation of Spanish Economic Growth, 1958-1975," Working Papers in Economic History dilf0503, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones. [Downloadable!]
  6. Richard Nahuis & Henry van der Wiel, 2005. "How Should Europe's ICT Ambitions look like? An Interpretative Review of the Facts," Working Papers 05-22, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chadha, J.S. & Nolan, C., 2001. "Supply Shocks and the ‘Natural Rate of Interest': an Exploration," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0103, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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