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General Purpose Technologies and Surges in Productivity: Historical Reflections on the Future of the ICT Revolution

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Author Info
Paul A. David () (All Souls College, Oxford)
Gavin Wright () (Stanford University)

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Abstract

The phenomenon of recurring prolonged swings in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate is approached in this paper by examining a particular episode in earlier twentieth century economic history. A marked acceleration of productivity growth in U.S. manufacturing occurred after World War I, and was the main driver of the absolute and relative rise of the private domestic economy’s TFP residual. This discontinuity reflected the elaboration and adoption of a new factory regime based upon the electric dynamo, a general purpose technology (GPT) that brought significant fixed-capital savings while simultaneously raising labor productivity in a wide array of manufacturing operations. But, rather than offering a purely technological explanation of the productivity surge of the 1920s, a more complex conceptualization of the dynamics of GPT diffusion is proposed. This highlights both the generic and the differentiating aspects of U.S. industrial electrification in comparison with that of the contemporary UK. Explicit historical contextualization of the GPT concept also sheds further light on the puzzling late twentieth century productivity slowdown, and it points to some contemporary portents of a future phase of more rapid total factor productivity growth.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Oxford University Economic and Social History Series with number _031.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_031

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1998. "The Origins Of Technology-Skill Complementarity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 693-732, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Manuel Trajtenberg, 1995. "General Purpose Technologies "Engines of Growth?"," NBER Working Papers 4148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hans-Joachim Voth, 1997. "Time and Work in Eighteenth-Century London," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _021, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  4. David M. Engstrom, 1997. "The Economic Determinants of Ethnic Segregation in Post-War Britain," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _012, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dan H. Andersen & Hans-Joachim Voth, 1997. "Neutrality and Mediterranean Shipping Under Danish Flag, 1750-1807," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _018, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paul A. David, 1997. "Path Dependence and the Quest for Historical Economics: One More chorus of Ballad of QWERTY," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _020, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  7. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
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