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Monetary Policy Misspecification in VAR Models

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Author Info
Canova, Fabio
Pina, Joaquim Pivis

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Abstract

We examine the effects of extracting monetary policy disturbances with semi-structural and structural VARs, using data generated by a limited participation model under partial accommodative and feedback rules. We find that, in general, misspecification is substantial: short run coefficients often have wrong signs; impulse responses and variance decompositions give misleading representations of the dynamics. Explanations for the results and suggestions for macroeconomic practice are provided.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2333.

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Date of creation: Dec 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2333

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Related research
Keywords: General Equilibrium identification Monetary Policy Structural VARs

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Staff Report 227, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Uhlig, H., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
    Other versions:
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Evidence from the Flow of Funds," NBER Working Papers 4699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," NBER Working Papers 5809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Thomas Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2006. "Monetary policy and the financial decisions of firms," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 243-270, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Modeling Money," NBER Working Papers 6371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  19. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  20. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Katie Farrant & Gert Peersman, . "Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: new evidence," Bank of England working papers 269, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macroeconomic model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 83-112. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. G. Peersman, 2004. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/235, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  5. Martin Menner & Hugo Rodriguez Mendizabal, 2005. "On the Identification of Monetary (and Other) Shocks," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 650.05, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Radim Bohacek & Hugo Rodriguez Mendizabal, 2003. "Credit Markets and the Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 599.04, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Peersman, Gert, 2003. "What Caused the Early Millennium Slowdown? Evidence Based on Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "Validating Monetary DSGE Models through VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Matt Klaeffling, 2003. "Macroeconomic modelling of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 257, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Marcel Fratzscher & Luciana Juvenal & Lucio Sarno, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 790, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Federico Ravenna, 2006. "Vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of DSGE models," Banco de España Working Papers 0619, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  14. Giordani, Paolo, 2001. "An Alternative Explanation of the Price Puzzle," Working Paper Series 125, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicoló, 1999. "On the Sources of Business Cycles in the G-7," Economics Working Papers 459, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Matt Klaeffing, 2003. "Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data," Working Paper Series 228, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. C.K. Folkertsma & K. Hubrich, 2001. "Performance of core inflation measures," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 63, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Fabio Canova, 2003. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Economics Working Papers 925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
  19. Alejandro Justiniano, 2004. "Sources and Propagation Mechanims of Foreign Disturbances in Small Open Economies: A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 148, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  20. Yongsung Chang & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Labor-Supply Shifts and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0204005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Gert Peersman, . "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 272, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  22. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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