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What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions

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Author Info
Gert Peersman
Abstract

This paper uses a number of simple VAR models for the industrialised world, the United States and the euro area respectively to analyse the underlying shocks that may have caused the recent slowdown. The results of two identification strategies are compared. One is based on traditional zero restrictions and, as an alternative, an identification scheme based on more recent sign restrictions is proposed. The main conclusion is that the recent slowdown was caused by a combination of several shocks: a negative aggregate supply and aggregate spending shock, the increase of oil prices in 1999, and restrictive monetary policy in 2000. These shocks were more pronounced in the United States than the euro area. The results are somewhat different depending on the identification strategy. It is illustrated that traditional zero restrictions can have an influence on the estimated impact of certain shocks.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 272.

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  1. Canova, Fabio & Pina, Joaquim Pivis, 1999. "Monetary Policy Misspecification in VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. H. Uhlig, . "Did the Fed Surprise the Markets in 2001? A case study for VARs with Sign Restrictions," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-98, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  4. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kieler, M. & Saarenheimo, T., 1998. "Differences in Monetary Policy Transmission? A Case Not Closed," European Economy - Economic Papers 132, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  6. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
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  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 2003. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-100, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  13. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Helge Braun & Reinout De Bock & Riccardo DiCecio, 2009. "Supply shocks, demand shocks, and labor market fluctuations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 155-178. [Downloadable!]
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