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What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions

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  • Gert Peersman

Abstract

This paper uses a number of simple VAR models for the industrialised world, the United States and the euro area respectively to analyse the underlying shocks that may have caused the recent slowdown. The results of two identification strategies are compared. One is based on traditional zero restrictions and, as an alternative, an identification scheme based on more recent sign restrictions is proposed. The main conclusion is that the recent slowdown was caused by a combination of several shocks: a negative aggregate supply and aggregate spending shock, the increase of oil prices in 1999, and restrictive monetary policy in 2000. These shocks were more pronounced in the United States than the euro area. The results are somewhat different depending on the identification strategy. It is illustrated that traditional zero restrictions can have an influence on the estimated impact of certain shocks.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 272.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:272

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0091, European Central Bank.
  3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  4. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 2000. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 660, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  8. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  10. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  14. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
  16. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  19. Uhlig, Harald, 2001. "Did the Fed surprise the markets in 2001? A case study for VARs with sign restrictions," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,98, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  20. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
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  22. Mads Kieler & Tuomas Saarenheimo, 1998. "Differences in monetary policy transmission? A case not closed," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 132, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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  1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Sign Restrictions
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