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Similarities and Convergence in G7 Cycles

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  • Canova, Fabio
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Ortega, Eva

Abstract

This Paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phases but, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of a euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4534.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4534

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Keywords: Bayesian methods; business cycle; G7; indicators; panel data;

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