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Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models

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Author Info
Kadiyala, K Rao
Karlsson, Sune

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Abstract

In Bayesian analysis of vector autoregressive models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is frequently used. In many cases other prior distributions provided better forecasts and are preferable from a theoretical standpoint. Several of these priors require numerical methods in order to evaluate the posterior distribution. Different ways of implementing Monte Carlo integration are considered. It is found that Gibbs sampling performs as well as, or better, then importance sampling and that the Gibbs sampling algorithms are less adversely affected by model size. We also report on the forecasting performance of the different prior distributions

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1997-v12.2/
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 12 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (March-April)
Pages: 99-132
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:12:y:1997:i:2:p:99-132

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  1. Andersson, Michael K & Karlsson, Sune, 2007. "Bayesian Forecast Combination for VAR Models," Working Papers 2007:13, Örebro University, Swedish Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Economics Working Papers 920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2004. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Working Paper Series 312, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2007. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Discussion Papers 7_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta & Marco Vega, 2005. "A BVAR Forecasting Model For Peruvian Inflation," Working Papers 2005-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  6. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ossama Mikhail, 2005. "What Happens After A Technology Shock? A Bayesian Perspective," Macroeconomics 0510016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrea Nobili, 2007. "Assessing the predictive power of financial spreads in the euro area: does parameters instability matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 177-195, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Anders Warne, 2006. "Bayesian inference in cointegrated VAR models - with applications to the demand for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 692, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2001. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium economies to data," Working Paper 2001-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  12. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2000. "Forecasting And Turning Point Predictions In A Bayesian Panel Var Model," Working Papers. Serie AD 2000-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  14. Ghent, Andra, 2006. "Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?," MPRA Paper 180, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2003. "Panel Index VAR Models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 4033, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio, 2003. "Comparing Dynamic Equilibrium Economies to Data," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000309, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 190, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 1999. "Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model," Economics Working Papers 443, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 603, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  20. Nicholai Benalal & Juan Luis Diaz del Hoyo & Bettina Landau & Moreno Roma & Frauke Skudelny, 2004. "To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting," Working Paper Series 374, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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