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Trade, Production Sharing and the International Transmission of Business Cycles

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Author Info
Ariel Burstein (UCLA)
Christopher Johann Kurz (University of Michigan)
Linda Tesar (University of Michigan)

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Abstract

This paper is motivated by three observations about the link between international trade and international business cycle synchronization: (1) a large increase in trade in manufactures over the last 30 years, (2) a larger fraction of trade between core and periphery regions relative to core regions is in the form of production sharing, (3) crosscountry output correlations have increased between core and periphery regions relative to core regions. We examine to what extent these observations can be reconciled in a multi-country version of a standard model of international business cycles. Production sharing is captured in a simple way as trade in intermediate inputs that are complements in production. We find that the model is successful qualitatively in account for these observations. Quantitatively, we find that the direct effects from trade do not generate large divergence in output correlationsacrosscountries. Weextendthemodel to allow for cost reduction spillovers from MNEs in the core country to their affiliates in the periphery. This mechanism increases the impact that product sharing has on output correlations between core and peripheral countries.

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Paper provided by Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan in its series Working Papers with number 522.

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Length: 38 Pages
Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:522

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2005. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Working Papers 05-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Vertical specialization and international business cycle synchronization," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 21, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jose Joaquin Lopez, 2007. "Production sharing and real business cycles in a small open economy," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 05, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2009. "Modelling Global Trade Flows: Results from a GVAR Model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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