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Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

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  • Fabio Canova

    () (ICREA-UPF)

  • Matteo Ciccarelli

    () (European Central Bank)

  • Eva Ortega

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, and the Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panel VAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and three outside of it. There are slow changes in the features of business cycles and in the transmission of shocks. Time variations appear to be unrelated to the three events of interest and instead linked to a process of European convergence and synchronization.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/09/Fic/dt0921e.pdf
File Function: First version, September 2009
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0921.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0921

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Keywords: Business cycles; European Monetary Union; Panel VAR; Structural changes;

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References

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  1. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 453-73, July.
  2. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2004. "Similarities and Convergence in G7 Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 4534, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  4. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 65-119.
  5. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Economics Working Papers 920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  6. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2003. "Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economics Working Papers 918, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  7. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
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  9. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA.
  10. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
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  12. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Institutions do not affect the business cycle
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-06-22 08:07:00
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Cited by:
  1. Sybille Lehwald, 2012. "Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization?Evidence from the Core and the Periphery," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 122, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
  4. Martina Cecioni & Stefano Neri, 2011. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: has it changed and why?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 808, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
  6. Fabio Canova & Fernando J. P�rez Forero, 2012. "Estimating Overidentified, Nonrecursive Time-Varying Coefficients Structural VARs," Working Papers 637, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  7. Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Working Paper Series 1498, European Central Bank.
  8. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
  9. Gianni Amisano & Nicola Giammarioli & Livio Stracca, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.

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