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Regionalization vs. Globalization

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  • Hideaki Hirata

    ()
    (Faculty of Business Administration, Hosei University and Japan Center for Economic Research)

  • M. Ayhan Kose

    ()
    (Research Department, International Monetary Fund)

  • Christopher Otrok

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia and Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)

Abstract

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960–2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business cycles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1302.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1302

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Keywords: Business cycles; Comovement; Synchronization; Trade linkages; Financial linkages.;

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  1. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2013. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 13.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  3. Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2013. "World, Country, and Sector Factors in International Business Cycles," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 045, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  4. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Working Paper Series 1498, European Central Bank.
  5. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Kamel GARFA, 2013. "Couplage Ou Découplage Des Cycles Économiques Des Mena : Une Approche En Termes De Modèle A Facteurs Dynamiques," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 38, pages 225-247.

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