Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia
AbstractAs trade integration deepens in East Asia, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles among East Asian countries. Theoretically, however, increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to shift in either direction: while inter-industry trade resulting in higher specialization would induce less synchronization, intra-industry trade could overturn this tendency. By using the data for twelve Asian economies, this paper finds that intra-industry trade is the major channel through which business cycles become synchronized among Asian economies, although increased trade itself does not necessarily lead to close business cycle coherence. This result has important implications for the prospects of a currency union in the region.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University in its series ISER Discussion Paper with number 0574.
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Liliane Karlinger, 2002. "The Impact of Common Currencies on Financial Markets: A Literature Review and Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers 02-35, Bank of Canada.
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002.
"Financial autarky and international business cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999. "Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
- Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Imbs, Jean, 2003.
"Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
- Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2002.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 409-436, May.
- Rodríguez, Francisco & Rodrik, Dani, 1999.
"Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Sceptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2143, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: a Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," Working Papers 9912, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 1999.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2001. "The Endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria, intraindustry trade and EMU enlargement," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 2000. "An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 2631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Choe, Jong-Il, 2001. "An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-586.
- Venables Anthony J. & Rice Patricia G. & Stewart Martin, 2003.
"The Geography of Intra-Industry Trade: empirics,"
The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy,
De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, September.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Balassa, Bela & Bauwens, Luc, 1988. "The determinants of intra-European trade in manufactured goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1421-1437, September.
- Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
- Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du DÃ©partement d'EconomÃ©trie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, revised Nov 1998.
- Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001.
"Borders and business cycles,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jong-Wha Lee & Yung Chul Park & Kwanho Shin, 2003. "A Currency Union in East Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0571, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Balassa, Bela, 1986. "Intra-Industry specialization : A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 27-42, February.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April.
- Joe Stone & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 1995. "Determinants of intra-industry trade: A longitudinal, cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 67-85, March.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fumiko Matsumoto).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.