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The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A
  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other countries. But international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations are endogenous. This paper develops and investigates the relationship between the two phenomena. Using thirty years of data for twenty industrialized countries, the authors uncover a strong and striking empirical finding: countries with closer trade links tend to have more tightly correlated business cycles.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 108 (1998)
Issue (Month): 449 (July)
Pages: 1009-25

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:108:y:1998:i:449:p:1009-25

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  1. Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  2. Luca Antonio Ricci, 1997. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Location," IMF Working Papers 97/69, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Alan C. Stockman, 1989. "Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries," NBER Working Papers 2313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Eichengreen, Barry, 1987. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior Under Alternative International Monetary Regimes: Interwar Evidence," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0nh766xh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  6. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  9. De Grauwe, Paul & Vanhaverbeke, Wim, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?," Economics Working Papers 92-188, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Barry J. Eichengreen & Tamim Bayoumi, 1993. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 93/20, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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