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A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone

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Author Info
S Barrios
M Brülhart
R J R Elliott
M Sensier

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Abstract

We examine the patterns and determinants of business-cycle correlations among eleven UK regions and six euro-zone countries over the 1966-1997 period, using GMM to allow for sampling error in comparing estimated correlations. The British business cycle is found to be persistently out of phase with that of the main euro-zone economies, and the trend is towards lower correlations. We detect only minor cyclical heterogeneity among UK regions. Differences in sectoral specialisation drive some of the asymmetry in GDP fluctuations, but they do not appear significant in explaining the observed reduction in UK-EU business-cycle correlations over time.

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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 03.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:03

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Related research
Keywords: business cycles; co-fluctuations; UK regions; European monetary union; optimum currency areas;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  19. Michael Devereux & Rachel Griffith & Helen Simpson, 1999. "The geographic distribution of production activity in the UK," IFS Working Papers W99/26, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Andrew Mullineux, 2004. "A Composite Leading Indicator of the Inflation Cycle for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 24, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2007. "On the endogeneity of an exogenous OCA-criterion: specialisation and the correlation of regional business cycles in Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 15-44, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. J. M. Binner & R. K. Bissoondeeal & A. W. Mullineux, 2005. "A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1257-1266, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ronald MacDonald & Paul Hallwood, 2004. "The Economic Case for Fiscal Federalism in Scotland," Working papers 2004-42, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Peter Hayes, 2005. "Estimating UK regional price indices, 1974--96," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 333-344, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rita De Siano & Marcella D'Uva, 2002. "How Much Specialization Matters In European Growth: An Application Of Cart Analysis To Emu Regions," Working Papers 5_2002, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gabriele Tondl & Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, 2006. "Regional growth cycle synchronisation with the Euro Area," Papers WP173, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  12. Christian Ariel Volpe Martincus & Andrea Molinari, 2005. "Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders - What are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?," ERSA conference papers ersa05p93, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  13. Belke, Ansgar & Heine, Jens M., 2004. "Specialisation Patterns and the Synchronicity of Regional Employment Cycles in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 1439, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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