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A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone

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  • Salvador BARROS
  • Marius BRÜLHART
  • Robert J.R. ELLIOTT
  • Marianne SENSIER

Abstract

We examine the patterns and determinants of business-cycle correlations among eleven UK regions and six euro-zone countries over the 1966-1997 period, using GMM to allow for sampling error in comparing estimated correlations. The British business cycle is found to be persistently out of phase with that of the main euro-zone economies, and the trend is towards lower correlations. We detect only minor cyclical heterogeneity among UK regions. Differences in sectoral specialisation drive some of the asymmetry in GDP fluctuations, but they do not appear significant in explaining the observed reduction in UK-EU business-cycle correlations over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 01.10.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in The Manchester School, vol. 71 (3), Sept. 2002, pp. 265-292
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:01.10

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
Fax: ++41 21 692.33.05
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Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
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Keywords: business cycles; co-fluctuations; UK regions; European monetary union; optimum currency areas;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fielding, David & Shields, Kalvinder, 2003. "A nation divided? Price and output dynamics in English regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 651-677, May.
  2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  3. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2009. "Regional Dimensions of the Australian Business Cycle," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1088, The University of Melbourne.
  4. Longhi, C. & Musolesi, A. & Baumont, C., 2013. "Modeling the industrial dynamics of the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration: a semiparametric approach," Working Papers 2013-10, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
  5. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2009. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," Discussion Paper Series 234, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  6. Longhi, Christian & Musolesi, Antonio & Baumont, Catherine, 2014. "Modeling structural change in the European metropolitan areas during the process of economic integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 395-407.
  7. Iulia Siedschlag & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Regional output growth synchronisation with the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 203-221, May.
  8. Christian Ariel Volpe Martincus & Andrea Molinari, 2005. "Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders - What are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?," ERSA conference papers ersa05p93, European Regional Science Association.
  9. Gabriele Tondl & Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, 2006. "Regional growth cycle synchronisation with the Euro Area," Papers WP173, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  10. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Ansgar Belke & Jens Heine, 2007. "On the endogeneity of an exogenous OCA-criterion: specialisation and the correlation of regional business cycles in Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 15-44, March.
  12. Sandra Poncet & Jean Barthélemy, 2008. "Ampleur et déterminants des cycles d’activité en Chine," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 185(4), pages 1-12.
  13. Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Regional Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 11, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
  14. Salá Rios, Mercé & Farré Perdiguer, Mariona & Torres Solé, Teresa, 2011. "El ciclo económico de Cataluña. Un análisis de la simetría respecto a España y a la UEM/Catalonia's Business Cycle. An Analysis of the Symmetry in Relation to Spain and the EMU," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 913 (24 pá, Diciembre.
  15. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional Business Cycles in the Austrian Economy," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.

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