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Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime

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  • Jean IMBS

Abstract

In a recent paper, Frankel and Rose (1998) documented endogenous effects of a monetary union, whereby costs and benefits of the union evolve after its implementation. This paper questions their findings on three grounds. First, their main result that trading partners display relatively more synchronized cycles is not robust to the presence of fixed effects, or variables omitted from their estimation liable to generate both intense trade and synchronized cycles. Second, the cost of giving up independent monetary policy is usually evaluated on the basis of the extent of co-fluctuations between business cycles. We bring into focus which measure of the cycle ought to be used for that purpose. In particular, such measure should in our opinion reflect how synchronized cycles would be in the absence of independent monetary policy. Third, documenting the assumption that fixed exchange rate regimes translate into more bilateral trade has proved elusive. We show that using a bilateral rather than cross-country approach brings little improvement on that front.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 9906.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Apr 1998
Date of revision: Nov 1998
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:9906

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Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
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Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
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Related research

Keywords: trade; optimal currency area; international business cycle;

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References

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  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," Working Papers 98.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
  3. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Sources and Propagation of International Business Cycles: Common Shocks or Transmission?," CEPR Discussion Papers 781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Elhanan Helpman & David T. Coe, 1993. "International RandD Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 93/84, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
  8. Imbs, Jean, 1999. "Co-Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  10. Imbs, Jean M., 1999. "Technology, growth and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 65-80, August.
  11. Luca Ricci, 2006. "Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 197-219, April.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1996. "Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 369, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994.
  15. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
  16. Andreas Hornstein & Jack Praschnik, 1997. "Intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement in the business cycle," Working Paper 97-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  17. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mélitz, Jacques & Zumer, Frédéric, 1999. "Interregional and International Risk Sharing and Lessons for EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Research Working Paper 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Loisel, Olivier, 2004. "Endogenously asymmetric demand shocks in a monetary union," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0405, CEPREMAP.
  5. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
  6. S Barrios & M Brülhart & R J R Elliott & M Sensier, 2002. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 03, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  7. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 104-123, April.
  8. Frédéric Zumer & Jacques Mélitz, 2002. "Partage du risque dans l'Union européenne : expériences interrégionales et internationales," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/762, Sciences Po.
  9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/762 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Michael J. Artis, 2000. "The UK and the EMU," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 67, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  11. Imbs, Jean, 1999. "Co-Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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